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DaviddTech
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soperator jptrendforce arbusdt 1h 29.07.2025

  • Homepage
TREND FOLOWING 1 hour @soperator
● Live

JP TrendForce by @DaviddTech 🤖 [f814d954]

🛡️ JPTRENDFORCE ARBUSDT 1H 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +0% Updated 2 weeks ago
Total Return Primary
406.66%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
51.67%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.614
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
4.8%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
329
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Apr 2, 2023
1,096
Days
329
Trades
Last Trade
Mar 22, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-04-02 22:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.64
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.86
  • Calmar: -3.08
  • Longest DD Days: 38.00
  • Volatility: 9.41
  • Skew: 0.40
  • Kurtosis: 1.21
  • Expected Daily: 0.11
  • Expected Monthly: 2.24
  • Expected Yearly: 30.46
  • Kelly Criterion: 18.87
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -1.01
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -1.20
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-03-22 07:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 8
  • Number Winning Trades 170
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 9
  • Number Losing Trades: 159
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -3.08
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.58
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.50
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.58
  • Tail Ratio: 1.30
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.94
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 4.03
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.01
  • Serenity Index: 13.24

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+7.23%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+4.66%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.11%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+3.08%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
-11.60%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 90 Days
+22.81%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.70%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+17.34%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
51.7%
Total Trades
329
Cumulative
-0.58%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
296.91%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-3.74%
+8.05%
Simple P&L
-3.15%
+14.32%
Simple P&L
-1.33%
-11.72%
Simple P&L
+3.19%
-20.91%
Simple P&L
+0.09%
-5.43%
Simple P&L
-0.45%
+3.67%
Simple P&L
-1.98%
+37.80%
Simple P&L
+1.26%
-18.35%
Simple P&L
-1.57%
-9.69%
Simple P&L
2024
-0.44%
+53.47%
Simple P&L
-2.62%
+33.57%
Simple P&L
+1.25%
+14.49%
Simple P&L
-3.81%
+20.70%
Simple P&L
+3.10%
+8.62%
Simple P&L
-0.63%
+6.58%
Simple P&L
+3.23%
+29.32%
Simple P&L
-3.91%
-2.84%
Simple P&L
-0.26%
-8.32%
Simple P&L
+1.00%
+0.23%
Simple P&L
-0.42%
+6.30%
Simple P&L
+3.19%
-4.83%
Simple P&L
2025
-5.60%
+31.29%
Simple P&L
+3.37%
+10.46%
Simple P&L
+6.42%
+15.71%
Simple P&L
-2.80%
+21.81%
Simple P&L
+0.56%
+6.08%
Simple P&L
+2.10%
+12.47%
Simple P&L
-3.88%
-2.53%
Simple P&L
-1.04%
+29.63%
Simple P&L
-0.87%
+5.47%
Simple P&L
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2026
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

329

Number of Trades

-0.58%

Cumulative Returns

51.67%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-11.6%

30 Days

0.7%

60 Days

22.81%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital10000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit40666.18406.6617072.4170.7223593.78235.94
Gross Profit106883.011068.8348627.93486.2858255.08582.55
Gross Loss66216.83662.1731555.54315.5634661.3346.61
Expected Payoff123.61113.82131.81
Commission Paid2122.81984.791138.02
Buy & Hold Return-9261.79-92.62
Buy & Hold % Gain-92.62
Strategy Outperformance49927.97
Max Contracts Held300974291781.0300974.0
Annualized Return (cagr)71.7639.3749.77
Return On Initial Capital406.66170.72235.94
Account Size Required5810.54
Return On Account Size Required699.87293.82406.05
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)15 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)2546.3125.46
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)7627.6476.28
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)47110.1982.66
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)471.1
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)20 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)1412.6714.13
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown72.944.06
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)5714.6857.15
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)5810.5419.78
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)58.11
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss1749.13734.321178.77
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.746.024.34
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss3.517.375.77
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades329.0150.0179.0
Number Winning Trades170.071.099.0
Number Losing Trades159.079.080.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable51.6747.3355.31
Avg P&l123.610.9113.820.6131.811.16
Avg Winning Trade628.726.61684.96.92588.446.39
Avg Losing Trade416.465.2399.445.09433.275.31
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.511.7151.358
Largest Winning Trade2928.482928.482528.85
Largest Winning Trade Percent10.7410.749.28
Largest Losing Trade2324.942324.942001.55
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.028.08.02
Avg # Bars In Trades45.043.046.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades43.042.044.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades46.043.049.0
Sharpe Ratio0.639
Sortino Ratio1.859
Profit Factor1.6141.5411.681
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital10000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit40666.18406.6617072.4170.7223593.78235.94
Gross Profit106883.011068.8348627.93486.2858255.08582.55
Gross Loss66216.83662.1731555.54315.5634661.3346.61
Expected Payoff123.61113.82131.81
Commission Paid2122.81984.791138.02
Buy & Hold Return-9261.79-92.62
Buy & Hold % Gain-92.62
Strategy Outperformance49927.97
Max Contracts Held300974291781.0300974.0
Annualized Return (cagr)71.7639.3749.77
Return On Initial Capital406.66170.72235.94
Account Size Required5810.54
Return On Account Size Required699.87293.82406.05
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)15 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)2546.3125.46
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)7627.6476.28
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)47110.1982.66
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)471.1
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)20 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)1412.6714.13
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown72.944.06
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)5714.6857.15
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)5810.5419.78
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)58.11
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss1749.13734.321178.77
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.746.024.34
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss3.517.375.77
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades329.0150.0179.0
Number Winning Trades170.071.099.0
Number Losing Trades159.079.080.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable51.6747.3355.31
Avg P&l123.610.9113.820.6131.811.16
Avg Winning Trade628.726.61684.96.92588.446.39
Avg Losing Trade416.465.2399.445.09433.275.31
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.511.7151.358
Largest Winning Trade2928.482928.482528.85
Largest Winning Trade Percent10.7410.749.28
Largest Losing Trade2324.942324.942001.55
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.028.08.02
Avg # Bars In Trades45.043.046.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades43.042.044.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades46.043.049.0
Sharpe Ratio0.639
Sortino Ratio1.859
Profit Factor1.6141.5411.681
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
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Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics indicate a positive outlook for the trading strategy:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 406.66%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 71.76%
Sharpe Ratio 0.639
Profit Factor 1.614
Maximum Drawdown -57.15%
Volatility (Annualized) 9.41%
Win Rate 51.67%

The strategy demonstrates strong annualized returns of 71.76% and a cumulative return of 406.66%, which is impressive. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.639 suggests that the strategy's returns are achieved with a reasonable level of risk. The Profit Factor of 1.614 indicates that the strategy is profitable overall, earning $1.61 for every $1 lost.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data, the strategy appears viable for real-world trading, particularly given the positive Sharpe Ratio and annualized return. However, the maximum drawdown of 57.15% is concerning and suggests the strategy is exposed to significant risk during adverse market conditions. This needs to be addressed to enhance its market readiness. Despite this, the strategy exhibits potential, having outperformed the market with a strategy outperformance rate of 49927.97%.

Risk Management

The strategy has room for improvement in risk management, particularly in minimizing drawdowns. Here are some suggestions:

  • Reduce leverage to decrease maximum drawdown, providing more capital stability.
  • Enhance stop-loss mechanisms to cut losses more effectively during high-risk periods.
  • Consider diversifying across more crypto assets or timeframes to distribute risk.

Improvement Suggestions

To improve the strategy's overall performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize the strategy parameters to balance returns while minimizing drawdowns.
  • Include additional technical indicators to refine the entry and exit signal accuracy.
  • Implement out-of-sample and forward testing to ensure the strategy's effectiveness in various market conditions.
  • Review and enhance the risk management framework with options such as hedging strategies and improved stop-loss techniques.

Final Opinion

The strategy demonstrates encouraging results with high returns and a positive Sharpe Ratio, but it is essential to address the high maximum drawdown. With appropriate improvements in risk management and further parameter optimization, the strategy could achieve a more balanced performance and enhanced viability.

Recommendation: Proceed with strategic modifications focusing on reducing drawdowns and further testing to build robustness, ensuring the strategy can sustain its performance across diverse market conditions.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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