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DaviddTech
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schmidhip wolfbear polyxusdt 1h 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLLOWING 1 hour @schmidhip
● Live

Wolf & Bear [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [f2108eac]

🛡️ WOLFBEAR POLYXUSDT 1H 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
POLYX
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +-3.33% Updated 6 hours ago
Total Return Primary
334.5%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
48.74%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.466
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-0.86%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
199
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Oct 29, 2023
846
Days
199
Trades
Last Trade
Feb 18, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-10-29 03:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.62
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.59
  • Calmar: -2.11
  • Longest DD Days: 22.00
  • Volatility: 14.23
  • Skew: 0.40
  • Kurtosis: -0.24
  • Expected Daily: 0.15
  • Expected Monthly: 3.16
  • Expected Yearly: 45.26
  • Kelly Criterion: 15.48
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -1.31
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -1.43
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-02-18 19:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 5
  • Number Winning Trades 97
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 6
  • Number Losing Trades: 102
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -2.11
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.47
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.54
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.47
  • Tail Ratio: 1.50
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.28
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.02
  • Serenity Index: 5.09

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.03%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
-1.43%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 90 Days
+0.05%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.05%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
-1.40%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
-3.33%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-5.32%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-11.99%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-3.02%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-7.81%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Win Rate
48.7%
Total Trades
199
Cumulative
-1.59%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
84.69%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-1.22%
+7.75%
Simple P&L
+0.77%
+5.99%
Simple P&L
-0.31%
+5.89%
Simple P&L
2024
+1.22%
+7.41%
Simple P&L
-1.17%
-3.23%
Simple P&L
+1.37%
+6.14%
Simple P&L
+1.35%
+2.07%
Simple P&L
-0.76%
-1.68%
Simple P&L
-0.66%
-2.29%
Simple P&L
+0.05%
+6.28%
Simple P&L
+0.44%
+6.73%
Simple P&L
+0.25%
+4.41%
Simple P&L
+0.25%
+10.64%
Simple P&L
-5.17%
+4.94%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+3.83%
Simple P&L
2025
+0.60%
+12.86%
Simple P&L
-0.02%
+10.68%
Simple P&L
-0.63%
+2.84%
Simple P&L
+1.21%
+3.96%
Simple P&L
-1.21%
-12.73%
Simple P&L
+0.87%
+9.36%
Simple P&L
-0.27%
+2.78%
Simple P&L
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2026
••••
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••••
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

199

Number of Trades

-1.59%

Cumulative Returns

48.74%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-5.32%

30 Days

-3.02%

60 Days

-11.99%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital10000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit33449.71334.58405.9784.0625043.74250.44
Gross Profit105244.871052.4528574.19285.7476670.68766.71
Gross Loss71795.16717.9520168.22201.6851626.94516.27
Expected Payoff168.0987.56243.14
Commission Paid6272.941707.794565.15
Buy & Hold Return-8367.97-83.68
Buy & Hold % Gain-83.68
Strategy Outperformance41817.68
Max Contracts Held21639401946634.02163940.0
Annualized Return (cagr)87.7329.971.2
Return On Initial Capital334.584.06250.44
Account Size Required9097.56
Return On Account Size Required367.6892.4275.28
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)17 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)3312.9333.13
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)9407.3294.07
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)40515.5880.21
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)405.16
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)21 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)2468.5724.69
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown3.680.922.75
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)8727.0787.27
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)9097.5619.08
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)90.98
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss1477.78487.851106.41
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.889.863.96
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss3.158.544.38
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades199.096.0103.0
Number Winning Trades97.043.054.0
Number Losing Trades102.053.049.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable48.7444.7952.43
Avg P&l168.090.4387.560.21243.140.62
Avg Winning Trade1085.02.78664.522.781419.832.78
Avg Losing Trade703.871.81380.531.861053.611.76
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5411.7461.348
Largest Winning Trade3033.422817.773033.42
Largest Winning Trade Percent9.089.084.93
Largest Losing Trade2263.511723.062263.51
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.228.223.91
Avg # Bars In Trades8.08.07.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades10.010.09.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades6.06.05.0
Sharpe Ratio0.622
Sortino Ratio1.592
Profit Factor1.4661.4171.485
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital10000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit33449.71334.58405.9784.0625043.74250.44
Gross Profit105244.871052.4528574.19285.7476670.68766.71
Gross Loss71795.16717.9520168.22201.6851626.94516.27
Expected Payoff168.0987.56243.14
Commission Paid6272.941707.794565.15
Buy & Hold Return-8367.97-83.68
Buy & Hold % Gain-83.68
Strategy Outperformance41817.68
Max Contracts Held21639401946634.02163940.0
Annualized Return (cagr)87.7329.971.2
Return On Initial Capital334.584.06250.44
Account Size Required9097.56
Return On Account Size Required367.6892.4275.28
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)17 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)3312.9333.13
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)9407.3294.07
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)40515.5880.21
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)405.16
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)21 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)2468.5724.69
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown3.680.922.75
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)8727.0787.27
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)9097.5619.08
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)90.98
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss1477.78487.851106.41
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.889.863.96
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss3.158.544.38
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades199.096.0103.0
Number Winning Trades97.043.054.0
Number Losing Trades102.053.049.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable48.7444.7952.43
Avg P&l168.090.4387.560.21243.140.62
Avg Winning Trade1085.02.78664.522.781419.832.78
Avg Losing Trade703.871.81380.531.861053.611.76
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5411.7461.348
Largest Winning Trade3033.422817.773033.42
Largest Winning Trade Percent9.089.084.93
Largest Losing Trade2263.511723.062263.51
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.228.223.91
Avg # Bars In Trades8.08.07.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades10.010.09.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades6.06.05.0
Sharpe Ratio0.622
Sortino Ratio1.592
Profit Factor1.4661.4171.485
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, there are several performance metrics that highlight the efficiency and areas for opportunity within the strategy:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 342.47%
Annualized Return (CAGR) 89.76%
Sharpe Ratio 0.634
Profit Factor 1.482
Maximum Drawdown 87.27%
Volatility (Annualized) 14.24%

The strategy showcases robust returns with a cumulative gain of 342.47% and an impressive annualized return of 89.76%. The Sharpe ratio of 0.634 indicates solid risk-adjusted performance, exceeding the acceptable threshold of 0.5 for crypto. However, the maximum drawdown of 87.27% flags a critical area of concern and an opportunity to significantly improve downside protection.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, the strategy’s real-world viability warrants attention regarding its drawdown. While the returns are superior, aligning the risk components is crucial for resilience during adverse market conditions. As the strategy outperforms a standard buy-and-hold approach with significant returns, focusing on enhancement in risk control will fortify its long-term viability.

Risk Management

The current risk management approach indicates room for enhancement, given the maximum drawdown level. To fortify the strategy further, consider:

  • Refining position sizing and leverage reduction to curtail drawdowns.
  • Integrating stop-loss mechanisms to safeguard against substantial losses.
  • Devising a volatility-adjusted trading model to manage exposure during tumultuous periods.

Improvement Suggestions

To bolster the strategy’s performance and resiliency, consider the following recommendations:

  • Most importantly, decrease leverage to reduce drawdowns, improving overall performance sustainability.
  • Optimize entry and exit criteria using a mix of technical analysis indicators for better consistency and accuracy in trades.
  • Conduct stress testing across varied market conditions to test the strategy's robustness.
  • Explore diversification opportunities across different crypto assets to minimize unsystematic risk.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy exhibits strong performance in terms of return generation but faces challenges in risk management, notably concerning drawdown levels. The potential of achieving significant returns is tempered by high drawdown exposure, which can be effectively mitigated with strategic adjustments and enhancements.

Recommendation: Proceed with the strategy, focusing on implementing suggested improvements to align drawdown levels under acceptable thresholds. Further optimization and robust risk management advancements will ensure the strategy is better equipped to capitalize on market opportunities while safeguarding against volatility.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
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Current Regime Age
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

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The settings will of started to download in the background.

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