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Traders should know
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schmidhip wolfbear polyxusdt 1h 29.07.2025

  • Homepage
TREND FOLLOWING 1 hour @schmidhip
● Live

Wolf & Bear [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [f2108eac]

🛡️ WOLFBEAR POLYXUSDT 1H 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
POLYX
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +2.84% Updated 5 days ago
Total Return Primary
217.43%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
51.85%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
15.68%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.67
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
0%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
162
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Oct 29, 2023
687
Days
162
Trades
Last Trade
Sep 9, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-10-29 03:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.69
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.72
  • Calmar: -3.11
  • Longest DD Days: 22.00
  • Volatility: 9.07
  • Skew: 0.23
  • Kurtosis: -0.39
  • Expected Daily: 0.12
  • Expected Monthly: 2.60
  • Expected Yearly: 36.08
  • Kelly Criterion: 19.28
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.86
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.93
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-09-09 14:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 5
  • Number Winning Trades 84
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 6
  • Number Losing Trades: 78
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -3.11
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.60
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.53
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.60
  • Tail Ratio: 1.43
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.33
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.01
  • Serenity Index: 7.33

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
-14.27%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 90 Days
+20.88%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
-22.10%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-5.34%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
+2.84%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+1.72%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+6.74%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
-1.08%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
+2.78%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
51.9%
Total Trades
162
Cumulative
217.43%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
93.39%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+11.91%
+7.75%
Simple P&L
+8.45%
+5.96%
Simple P&L
+8.64%
+6.04%
Simple P&L
2024
+26.69%
+7.53%
Simple P&L
-7.69%
-3.27%
Simple P&L
+10.30%
+6.15%
Simple P&L
+7.19%
+2.09%
Simple P&L
-4.74%
-1.70%
Simple P&L
-3.26%
-2.29%
Simple P&L
+21.76%
+6.27%
Simple P&L
+7.18%
+6.75%
Simple P&L
+15.91%
+4.42%
Simple P&L
+27.70%
+10.75%
Simple P&L
+13.41%
+4.96%
Simple P&L
+18.01%
+3.82%
Simple P&L
2025
+32.63%
+12.92%
Simple P&L
+38.98%
+10.76%
Simple P&L
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

162

Number of Trades

217.43%

Cumulative Returns

51.85%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

1.72%

30 Days

-1.08%

60 Days

6.74%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit21742.75217.438146.681.4713596.15135.96
Gross Profit54175.86541.7616439.3164.3937736.56377.37
Gross Loss32433.11324.338292.782.9324140.41241.4
Commission Paid2982.44821.062161.38
Buy & Hold Return-4953.45-49.53
Max Equity Run-up25438.4771.79
Max Drawdown4677.9215.68
Max Contracts Held535818.0242100.0535818.0
Total Closed Trades162.080.082.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades84.040.044.0
Number Losing Trades78.040.038.0
Percent Profitable51.8550.053.66
Avg P&l134.210.58101.830.47165.810.68
Avg Winning Trade644.952.81410.982.82857.652.81
Avg Losing Trade415.811.83207.321.89635.271.78
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5511.9821.35
Largest Winning Trade1771.541555.041771.54
Largest Winning Trade Percent9.089.084.93
Largest Losing Trade1255.931097.961255.93
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.228.223.91
Avg # Bars In Trades7.08.06.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades9.010.08.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades5.05.04.0
Sharpe Ratio0.688
Sortino Ratio1.716
Profit Factor1.671.9821.563
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit21742.75217.438146.681.4713596.15135.96
Gross Profit54175.86541.7616439.3164.3937736.56377.37
Gross Loss32433.11324.338292.782.9324140.41241.4
Commission Paid2982.44821.062161.38
Buy & Hold Return-4953.45-49.53
Max Equity Run-up25438.4771.79
Max Drawdown4677.9215.68
Max Contracts Held535818.0242100.0535818.0
Total Closed Trades162.080.082.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades84.040.044.0
Number Losing Trades78.040.038.0
Percent Profitable51.8550.053.66
Avg P&l134.210.58101.830.47165.810.68
Avg Winning Trade644.952.81410.982.82857.652.81
Avg Losing Trade415.811.83207.321.89635.271.78
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5511.9821.35
Largest Winning Trade1771.541555.041771.54
Largest Winning Trade Percent9.089.084.93
Largest Losing Trade1255.931097.961255.93
Largest Losing Trade Percent8.228.223.91
Avg # Bars In Trades7.08.06.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades9.010.08.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades5.05.04.0
Sharpe Ratio0.688
Sortino Ratio1.716
Profit Factor1.671.9821.563
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, the strategy demonstrates several intriguing performance metrics that warrant consideration:

Metric Strategy
Net Profit 217.43%
Sharpe Ratio 0.688
Profit Factor 1.67
Maximum Drawdown -15.68%
Percent Profitable 51.85%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 11.11%

The strategy reflects a net profit of 217.43%, which is a commendable achievement. The Sharpe Ratio stands at 0.688, above the market's accepted threshold of 0.5 for a good performance in crypto trading. The maximum drawdown of -15.68% is comfortably under the 40% mark, indicating effective drawdown management.

Strategy Viability

Based on the available data, this strategy appears viable for real-world trading. It has consistently outperformed expectations in terms of net profit and maintained a decent risk-adjusted return profile. The environment in which the strategy performs optimally should be closely monitored to ensure continued success. Given the buy-and-hold return is -49.53%, this strategy clearly provides a beneficial alternative in this specific market condition.

Risk Management

The strategy shows adept risk management as evidenced by the low maximum drawdown and the absence of margin calls. Although the volatility at 9.07% is modest, it suggests opportunities for improvement, particularly in managing daily fluctuations to further leverage returns. Potential enhancements could include:

  • Dynamic position sizing to better adjust exposure based on market trends and volatility.
  • Refinement of stop-loss mechanisms to protect against outlier losses, especially considering a largest losing trade of 8.22%.
  • Increasing diversification to spread risk across multiple asset types.

Improvement Suggestions

To bolster the strategy's effectiveness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize existing parameters to balance maximizing returns and minimizing drawdowns.
  • Incorporate supplementary technical indicators or machine learning models to enhance trade signals.
  • Conduct comprehensive out-of-sample and forward testing to further validate the strategy's stability and adaptability.
  • Leverage less to decrease the potential for significant drawdowns.

Final Opinion

The strategy showcases solid performance with profitable returns, surpassing benchmarks in terms of risk-adjusted measures. While several areas exist for enhancement, its robust foundation suggests potential for increased profitability with targeted adjustments.

Recommendation: Proceed with further strategy optimization and testing. Implement specified improvements to enhance resilience and adaptability, particularly focusing on refining risk management techniques to excel across varying market conditions.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
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Current Regime Age
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

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