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MICHONNE BTC 89m

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Michonne [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [c91aef64]

🛡️ MICHONNE BTC 89M @Igorek

TREND FOLOWING
89 minutes

by DaviddTech - March 18, 2024
0
ℹ️ All backtest include trading fees.


⚪️ Deep Backtest

Last updated: 5 hours ago

1521.32%

Net Profit

58.37%

Win Rate

257

Total Closed Trades

1.442

Profit Factor

🛡️ %

Max Drawdown

187.6% 🔥

Incubation Delta

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2020-04-23 14:21:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.48
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.51
  • Calmar: -2.33
  • Longest DD Days: 57.00
  • Volatility: 73.60
  • Skew: -0.17
  • Kurtosis: -1.46
  • Expected Daily: 1.19
  • Expected Monthly: 28.10
  • Expected Yearly: 1,852.71
  • Kelly Criterion: 17.85
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -5.69
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -6.43
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-05-12 06:56:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 8
  • Number Winning Trades 150
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 6
  • Number Losing Trades: 107
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -2.33
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.44
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.03
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.44
  • Tail Ratio: 1.32
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 0.00
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.10
  • Serenity Index: 45.97

AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst

Typing...

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 1521.32%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 73.54%
Sharpe Ratio 0.475
Profit Factor 1.442
Maximum Drawdown -33.05%
Volatility (Annualized) 73.6%

The strategy shows substantial returns with a cumulative gain of 1521.32% over the trading period. However, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.475, slightly below the 0.5 threshold, suggests some room for improvement in risk-adjusted performance. Meanwhile, the maximum drawdown of -33.05% remains within a manageable range, demonstrating the strategy's capability to withstand market downturns effectively.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, the strategy appears viable for real-world cryptocurrency trading. Its consistent returns and drawdown management are promising. However, the viability is slightly tempered by a Sharpe Ratio that is marginally below the preferred standard. It is encouraging that the strategy achieves a positive profit factor, hinting at a potential sustainable edge.

Risk Management

The strategy incorporates some effective risk management strategies, evident from maintaining a maximum drawdown below 40%. Nonetheless, with an annualized volatility at 73.6%, there are opportunities to optimize risk control mechanisms further.

  • Consider reducing leverage to lower the maximum drawdown further.
  • Enhance stop-loss strategies to protect against unexpected volatility.
  • Use dynamic position sizing to adapt to changing market conditions effectively.

Improvement Suggestions

To enhance the strategy's robustness and performance, consider implementing the following:

  • Improve risk-adjusted performance by fine-tuning trading parameters.
  • Introduce additional technical indicators to better optimize trade timing.
  • Perform rigorous out-of-sample testing to ensure strategy robustness across diverse market conditions.
  • Explore advanced risk management tools such as Value-at-Risk adjustments and stress-testing approaches.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy displays promising potential with commendable cumulative returns and decent drawdown management. Although the Sharpe Ratio indicates a need for improved risk-adjusted returns, the strategy remains a strong candidate with optimization and further validation.

Recommendation: Proceed with further testing, incorporating suggested improvements to refine risk management and increase overall strategy robustness. Aim for a higher Sharpe Ratio through optimization and advanced risk management techniques.

AI Quant, can you analyze this strategy?

Standard Monthly Profit

This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
20200.00%0.00%0.00%28.31%-2.75%8.76%8.34%-10.95%3.14%22.74%10.69%18.91%
20210.00%17.39%7.49%7.69%6.41%-3.75%-0.14%0.70%-0.04%26.55%4.51%1.50%
20220.80%6.20%5.35%4.05%5.72%-3.92%9.78%0.34%5.76%0.91%8.97%5.74%
202311.90%0.63%26.20%5.61%-6.95%14.91%-3.86%-2.44%-4.65%29.43%-3.82%-0.39%
2024-7.84%12.42%12.37%0.21%3.68%-3.55%-3.36%-12.00%-2.86%1.79%Login to see resultsLogin to see results
2025Login to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see results0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Live Trades Stats

BTC

Base Currency

63

Number of Trades

18.77%

Cumulative Returns

49.21%

Win Rate

2024-03-16

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

35.02%

30 Days

61.4%

60 Days

24.09%

90 Days

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit1333723.861333.721080005.621080.01253718.25253.72
Gross Profit2996695.02996.72686364.212686.36310330.79310.33
Gross Loss1662971.141662.971606358.61606.3656612.5456.61
Commission Paid149580.46137545.4412035.02
Buy & Hold Return826580.93826.58
Max Equity Run-up1462151.193.6
Max Drawdown263106.6719.4
Max Contracts Held69.069.053.0
Total Closed Trades194.0173.021.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades119.0103.016.0
Number Losing Trades75.070.05.0
Percent Profitable61.3459.5476.19
Avg P&l6874.870.896242.810.8312081.821.4
Avg Winning Trade25182.312.8526081.212.8919395.672.61
Avg Losing Trade22172.952.2322947.982.2111322.512.45
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.1361.1371.713
Largest Winning Trade99275.7799275.7737362.99
Largest Winning Trade Percent4.974.974.75
Largest Losing Trade79881.4179881.4127562.3
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.953.953.85
Avg # Bars In Trades20.019.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades21.019.030.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades19.019.019.0
Sharpe Ratio0.588
Sortino Ratio2.235
Profit Factor1.8021.6725.482
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit1521320.661521.321449789.941449.7971530.7271.53
Gross Profit4960852.434960.854478992.934478.99481859.49481.86
Gross Loss3439531.773439.533029202.993029.2410328.78410.33
Commission Paid265003.95238606.2126397.74
Buy & Hold Return1395596.61395.6
Max Equity Run-up1532887.3193.88
Max Drawdown531611.0733.05
Max Contracts Held69.069.053.0
Total Closed Trades257.0226.031.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades150.0131.019.0
Number Losing Trades107.095.012.0
Percent Profitable58.3757.9661.29
Avg P&l5919.540.76415.00.712307.440.62
Avg Winning Trade33072.352.8434190.792.8625361.032.7
Avg Losing Trade32145.162.331886.352.2534194.062.68
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.0291.0720.742
Largest Winning Trade123821.28123821.2867621.1
Largest Winning Trade Percent4.984.984.75
Largest Losing Trade92730.892730.858338.8
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.953.953.85
Avg # Bars In Trades23.022.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades23.023.030.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades21.021.023.0
Sharpe Ratio0.475
Sortino Ratio1.512
Profit Factor1.4421.4791.174
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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© All rights reserved DaviddTech 2024.
Disclaimer: The performance outcomes presented on davidd.tech are theoretical and subject to many limitations. It should not be assumed that any accounts will or can replicate the profits or losses similar to those depicted. Theoretical performance is often created looking back, which does not account for all the variables that can impact trading outcomes. Various market dynamics or the execution of specific trading strategies may introduce discrepancies that are not reflected in these theoretical results, potentially influencing actual trading negatively. Historical success does not guarantee future returns. Market conditions evolve, suggesting that the effectiveness of these strategies may diminish over time, necessitating new approaches. Additionally, performance can vary significantly among different brokers, and there is no expectation for backtested results to align precisely with actual market performance.
Charting is displayed using TradingView's technology, a platform, where you can track the latest events in the Economic calendar, watch live prices, and more

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