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MICHONNE BTC 89m

  • Homepage
TREND FOLOWING 89 minutes @Igorek
● Live

Michonne [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [c91aef64]

🛡️ MICHONNE BTC 89M

Trading Pair
BTC
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - March 18, 2024
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +0% Updated 3 months ago
Total Return Primary
162.29%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
53.37%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.161
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
0.72%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
208
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Feb 8, 2022
1,598
Days
208
Trades
Last Trade
Mar 22, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2022-02-08 05:56:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.24
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.56
  • Calmar: -0.71
  • Longest DD Days: 76.00
  • Volatility: 68.39
  • Skew: 0.01
  • Kurtosis: -1.47
  • Expected Daily: 0.54
  • Expected Monthly: 11.97
  • Expected Yearly: 288.45
  • Kelly Criterion: 6.85
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -5.33
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -6.08
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-03-22 09:18:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 8
  • Number Winning Trades 111
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 7
  • Number Losing Trades: 97
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.71
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.15
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.01
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.15
  • Tail Ratio: 1.27
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.05
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.14
  • Serenity Index: 1.68

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+0.74%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
-8.83%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Win Rate
53.6%
Total Trades
209
Cumulative
-2.27%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
66.85%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2022
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-1.54%
+3.52%
Simple P&L
+0.97%
+3.74%
Simple P&L
-0.42%
+3.22%
Simple P&L
-0.37%
+4.20%
Simple P&L
-0.84%
-2.25%
Simple P&L
+0.43%
+5.62%
Simple P&L
+1.49%
+0.50%
Simple P&L
-2.55%
+3.91%
Simple P&L
+0.53%
+0.84%
Simple P&L
+1.28%
+6.51%
Simple P&L
-0.07%
+3.22%
Simple P&L
2023
-0.86%
+6.52%
Simple P&L
+1.09%
+0.29%
Simple P&L
+0.28%
+14.75%
Simple P&L
-2.03%
+3.18%
Simple P&L
+1.66%
-4.55%
Simple P&L
-2.00%
+8.71%
Simple P&L
+1.64%
-2.24%
Simple P&L
-1.05%
-0.57%
Simple P&L
+0.69%
-2.69%
Simple P&L
+1.36%
+17.33%
Simple P&L
-2.34%
-2.30%
Simple P&L
+0.61%
-0.74%
Simple P&L
2024
+0.24%
-4.53%
Simple P&L
+1.11%
+6.98%
Simple P&L
-2.36%
+7.02%
Simple P&L
+1.41%
+1.66%
Simple P&L
-1.17%
+1.18%
Simple P&L
+0.12%
-2.87%
Simple P&L
-0.25%
-2.06%
Simple P&L
+1.06%
-6.56%
Simple P&L
-1.39%
-1.71%
Simple P&L
+0.01%
+0.18%
Simple P&L
-0.54%
+11.76%
Simple P&L
-0.18%
+0.44%
Simple P&L
2025
+0.60%
-6.51%
Simple P&L
+0.75%
-4.96%
Simple P&L
-0.28%
-1.04%
Simple P&L
-0.39%
+4.02%
Simple P&L
-0.68%
+9.06%
Simple P&L
+2.59%
-0.46%
Simple P&L
-1.72%
-1.25%
Simple P&L
+0.01%
-1.49%
Simple P&L
+0.71%
+4.75%
Simple P&L
-0.32%
+2.36%
Simple P&L
-0.83%
-5.56%
Simple P&L
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2026
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

209

Number of Trades

-2.27%

Cumulative Returns

53.59%

Win Rate

2024-03-16

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

0%

30 Days

0%

60 Days

0%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l5085.211.94
Net Profit162288.37162.29206428.92206.43-44140.55-44.14
Gross Profit1169495.831169.51064900.031064.9104595.8104.6
Gross Loss1007207.461007.21858471.11858.47148736.35148.74
Expected Payoff780.231153.23-1522.09
Commission Paid92157.4982238.899918.6
Buy & Hold Return56141.3356.14
Buy & Hold % Gain56.14
Strategy Outperformance106147.04
Max Contracts Held1616.012.0
Annualized Return (cagr)25.6530.37-12.88
Return On Initial Capital162.29206.43-44.14
Account Size Required170390.09
Return On Account Size Required95.25121.15-25.91
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)54 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)44776.5644.78
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)172270.88172.27
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)322923.9376.64
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)322.92
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)58 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)50018.0950.02
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.981.24-0.23
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)160484.42160.48
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)170390.0940.44
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)170.39
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss766.53975.01-241.25
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.382.6114.68
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.12.4712.3
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Total Closed Trades208.0179.029.0
Number Winning Trades111.096.015.0
Number Losing Trades97.083.014.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable53.3753.6351.72
Avg P&l780.230.311153.230.33-1522.090.2
Avg Winning Trade10536.02.5511092.712.516973.052.76
Avg Losing Trade10383.582.2410343.032.1910624.032.55
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.0151.0720.656
Largest Winning Trade27837.5427837.5415358.09
Largest Winning Trade Percent4.964.964.73
Largest Losing Trade21171.9121171.9118296.5
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.963.963.5
Avg # Bars In Trades23.023.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.023.030.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades22.022.026.0
Sharpe Ratio0.239
Sortino Ratio0.558
Profit Factor1.1611.240.703
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l5467.282.08
Net Profit162288.37162.29206428.92206.43-44140.55-44.14
Gross Profit1169495.831169.51064900.031064.9104595.8104.6
Gross Loss1007207.461007.21858471.11858.47148736.35148.74
Expected Payoff780.231153.23-1522.09
Commission Paid92157.4982238.899918.6
Buy & Hold Return55954.9755.95
Buy & Hold % Gain55.95
Strategy Outperformance106333.4
Max Contracts Held1616.012.0
Annualized Return (cagr)25.6530.37-12.88
Return On Initial Capital162.29206.43-44.14
Account Size Required170390.09
Return On Account Size Required95.25121.15-25.91
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)54 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)44776.5644.78
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)172270.88172.27
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)322923.9376.64
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)322.92
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)58 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)50018.0950.02
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.981.24-0.23
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)160484.42160.48
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)170390.0940.44
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)170.39
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss766.53975.01-241.25
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.382.6114.68
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.12.4712.3
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Total Closed Trades208.0179.029.0
Number Winning Trades111.096.015.0
Number Losing Trades97.083.014.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable53.3753.6351.72
Avg P&l780.230.311153.230.33-1522.090.2
Avg Winning Trade10536.02.5511092.712.516973.052.76
Avg Losing Trade10383.582.2410343.032.1910624.032.55
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.0151.0720.656
Largest Winning Trade27837.5427837.5415358.09
Largest Winning Trade Percent4.964.964.73
Largest Losing Trade21171.9121171.9118296.5
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.963.963.5
Avg # Bars In Trades23.023.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.023.030.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades22.022.026.0
Sharpe Ratio0.239
Sortino Ratio0.56
Profit Factor1.1611.240.703
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
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Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 25.65%
Sharpe Ratio 0.239
Profit Factor 1.161
Maximum Drawdown 40.44% (intrabar)
Volatility (Annualized) 68.39%
Percent Profitable 53.37%

The strategy demonstrates a solid annualized return of 25.65%, with a profit factor of 1.161, indicating more wins than losses. The maximum drawdown is slightly above the ideal threshold, suggesting potential risk, which might be optimized by adjusting leverage. With a nearly balanced win-loss ratio, the strategy has room for performance improvement.

Strategy Viability

The strategy appears viable for real-world trading, showing potential in market conditions with steady or rising trends. However, given the Sharpe ratio of 0.239, there are opportunities to enhance the risk-adjusted returns. The drawdown and volatility levels point to possible adjustments needed under varying market conditions, but the profit factor and win rate point toward intrinsic potential.

Risk Management

The strategy could benefit from an enhanced risk management approach, given the drawdown and volatility figures:

  • Reduce leverage usage, potentially decreasing drawdowns to improve sustained capital levels.
  • Incorporate more dynamic stop-loss strategies to protect against significant losses.
  • Utilize position sizing adjusting methodologies based on volatility metrics.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize input parameters for the strategy to boost returns while controlling drawdowns more effectively.
  • Incorporate additional technical indicators to improve timing and precision of trade entries and exits.
  • Conduct thorough out-of-sample and forward-testing to verify robustness in varying market conditions.
  • Implement more sophisticated risk management techniques such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and regular stress testing.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy shows a commendable performance with its annualized returns and higher win rates. However, enhancing the Sharpe ratio and controlling the drawdown will be pivotal for achieving strong risk-adjusted returns. Minor adjustments to risk management and leverage can go a long way in elevating the strategy's potential.

Recommendation: Continue with the strategy, focusing on optimizing parameters and risk management to enhance resilience and adaptability in varying market environments. Further testing to aid validation across different environmental settings is advisable.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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