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mcginley ape 1h

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🚀 McGinley Trend Followers [v5] by @DaviddTech 🤖 [7b9d31aa]

🛡️ MCGINLEY APE 1H @zagzag

TREND FOLOWING
1 hour

by DaviddTech - February 27, 2024
0
ℹ️ All backtest include trading fees.


⚪️ Deep Backtest

Last updated: 3 hours ago

1112.02%

Net Profit

50%

Win Rate

132

Total Closed Trades

1.34

Profit Factor

🛡️ %

Max Drawdown

282.13% 🔥

Incubation Delta

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2022-08-10 22:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.47
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.05
  • Calmar: -0.74
  • Longest DD Days: 42.00
  • Volatility: 5.76
  • Skew: 0.37
  • Kurtosis: -0.61
  • Expected Daily: 0.05
  • Expected Monthly: 0.98
  • Expected Yearly: 12.48
  • Kelly Criterion: 10.10
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.47
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.54
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-05-06 19:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 8
  • Number Winning Trades 66
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 11
  • Number Losing Trades: 66
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.74
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.26
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.30
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.26
  • Tail Ratio: 1.45
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.39
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.01
  • Serenity Index: 0.67

AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst

Typing...

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, the following performance metrics stand out:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 1112.02%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 2.21%
Sharpe Ratio 0.466
Profit Factor 1.34
Maximum Drawdown -55.02%
Volatility (Annualized) 5.76%

The strategy reveals a positive cumulative return of 1112.02%, signifying overall profitability. However, the Sharpe Ratio is slightly below the preferred threshold of 0.5, indicating room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. The Profit Factor of 1.34 suggests that the strategy earns more than it loses by some margin. One notable area for concern is the maximum drawdown of -55.02%, which exceeds the preferred limit of 40%. This might imply periods of significant loss, yet considering the potential for improved leverage management, this can be addressed.

Strategy Viability

The data indicates that the strategy has been profitable, yet there are concerns regarding its risk-adjusted effectiveness. While exhibiting a reasonable profit factor, its high drawdown suggests that the strategy could be vulnerable during adverse market conditions, especially without additional capital management measures. However, given the estimated CAGR, the strategy has the potential to be viable with adjustments. Users should be aware of possible market shifts and adapt as necessary.

Risk Management

The strategy's risk management practices could be enhanced, particularly in reducing the drawdown levels. Suggested improvements include:

  • Adjusting leverage to align with acceptable risk tolerance could effectively minimize drawdowns.
  • Incorporating stricter stop-loss parameters to prevent larger losses in volatile markets.
  • Diversifying trading pairs to spread out risk and limit exposure to specific currency fluctuations.

Improvement Suggestions

To refine the strategy and bolster performance, consider the following recommendations:

  • Conduct in-depth optimization of strategy parameters to achieve higher Sharpe Ratios by balancing risk and reward.
  • Test additional entry and exit indicators that may enhance trading timing and accuracy.
  • Perform rigorous out-of-sample and forward testing to ensure the strategy's robustness across various market conditions.
  • Integrate a dynamic leverage adjustment model to reduce drawdown during high market volatility.

Final Opinion

Overall, the strategy presents a promising framework for profit generation, with a substantial cumulative return. However, optimization and risk management enhancements are essential to improve its overall effectiveness. Addressing the high drawdown and enhancing risk-adjusted metrics will likely lead to better sustainability in varying market environments.

Recommendation: Proceed with further testing and optimization, focusing on improving risk management and optimizing parameters to achieve more consistent and robust returns.

AI Quant, can you analyze this strategy?

Standard Monthly Profit

This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
20220.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.23%13.65%44.03%17.43%37.65%
202333.00%-2.05%33.54%-4.03%31.02%-3.49%16.29%-6.40%42.17%-8.01%-10.66%2.31%
2024-16.41%35.98%0.00%5.97%-56.57%13.42%4.49%25.65%-2.19%-5.22%Login to see resultsLogin to see results
2025Login to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see results0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Live Trades Stats

APE

Base Currency

48

Number of Trades

51.33%

Cumulative Returns

41.67%

Win Rate

2024-02-27

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

29.14%

30 Days

100.3%

60 Days

60.87%

90 Days

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit4605.9829.892292.32413.032313.58416.86
Gross Profit14177.042554.426760.261218.077416.771336.36
Gross Loss9571.131724.534467.94805.035103.19919.49
Commission Paid441.99213.86228.13
Buy & Hold Return-399.61-72.0
Max Equity Run-up5372.0391.21
Max Drawdown2148.9239.6
Max Contracts Held15684.014655.015684.0
Total Closed Trades84.037.047.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades46.019.027.0
Number Losing Trades38.018.020.0
Percent Profitable54.7651.3557.45
Avg P&l54.831.3961.950.9449.231.74
Avg Winning Trade308.25.31355.84.91274.75.59
Avg Losing Trade251.873.36248.223.25255.163.46
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.2241.4331.077
Largest Winning Trade909.62909.62579.0
Largest Winning Trade Percent6.416.336.41
Largest Losing Trade589.21589.21540.88
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.783.783.75
Avg # Bars In Trades35.029.039.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades35.024.043.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades34.034.034.0
Sharpe Ratio0.672
Sortino Ratio2.494
Profit Factor1.4811.5131.453
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit6171.731112.02208.6237.595963.111074.44
Gross Profit24344.524386.411811.222128.1512533.32258.25
Gross Loss18172.793274.3811602.612090.566570.191183.82
Commission Paid778.66446.41332.25
Buy & Hold Return-504.08-90.83
Max Equity Run-up6209.1492.31
Max Drawdown3151.0155.02
Max Contracts Held38656.038656.036517.0
Total Closed Trades132.072.060.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades66.031.035.0
Number Losing Trades66.041.025.0
Percent Profitable50.043.0658.33
Avg P&l46.761.012.90.3199.391.85
Avg Winning Trade368.865.42381.015.18358.095.63
Avg Losing Trade275.353.4282.993.37262.813.45
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.341.3461.363
Largest Winning Trade1012.81012.8979.07
Largest Winning Trade Percent6.456.336.45
Largest Losing Trade652.41652.41540.88
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.783.783.75
Avg # Bars In Trades32.029.037.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades33.026.039.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades32.031.033.0
Sharpe Ratio0.466
Sortino Ratio1.05
Profit Factor1.341.0181.908
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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© All rights reserved DaviddTech 2024.
Disclaimer: The performance outcomes presented on davidd.tech are theoretical and subject to many limitations. It should not be assumed that any accounts will or can replicate the profits or losses similar to those depicted. Theoretical performance is often created looking back, which does not account for all the variables that can impact trading outcomes. Various market dynamics or the execution of specific trading strategies may introduce discrepancies that are not reflected in these theoretical results, potentially influencing actual trading negatively. Historical success does not guarantee future returns. Market conditions evolve, suggesting that the effectiveness of these strategies may diminish over time, necessitating new approaches. Additionally, performance can vary significantly among different brokers, and there is no expectation for backtested results to align precisely with actual market performance.
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