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DaviddTech
DaviddTech
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tomnoodles7 tdzv5 btcusd 1h 23.4

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THE DEAD ZONE [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [659ac2ae]

🛡️ TDZV5 BTCUSD 1H 23.4 @tomnoodles7

TREND FOLOWING
1 hour

by DaviddTech - May 9, 2024
0
ℹ️ All backtest include trading fees.


⚪️ Deep Backtest

Last updated: 1 hour ago

7112.69%

Net Profit

61.04%

Win Rate

154

Total Closed Trades

2.167

Profit Factor

🛡️ %

Max Drawdown

1085.43% 🔥

Incubation Delta

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2018-12-19 12:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.54
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.95
  • Calmar: -2.57
  • Longest DD Days: 36.00
  • Volatility: 100.69
  • Skew: -0.33
  • Kurtosis: -1.76
  • Expected Daily: 2.97
  • Expected Monthly: 84.97
  • Expected Yearly: 160,318.00
  • Kelly Criterion: 36.10
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -5.21
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -5.31
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-05-13 04:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 94
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 6
  • Number Losing Trades: 60
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -2.57
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 2.41
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.50
  • Common Sense Ratio: 2.41
  • Tail Ratio: 1.87
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 0.00
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.10
  • Serenity Index: 190.63

AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst

Typing...

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Net Profit 7112.69%
Buy & Hold Return 2834.69%
Sharpe Ratio 0.535
Sortino Ratio 1.954
Profit Factor 2.167
Maximum Drawdown 37.45%
Volatility (Annualized) 100.69%
Percent Profitable 61.04%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 95.09%

The strategy showcases a significant net profit of 7112.69% with a respectable Sharpe Ratio of 0.535, which is considered good in the crypto domain. The Profit Factor of 2.167 indicates a favorable risk-reward scenario, with each loss compensated by more than twice the gain. The maximum drawdown of 37.45% is below the threshold and is impressive given the high volatility inherent in crypto markets.

Strategy Viability

This strategy appears viable for real-world trading, especially considering its strong profit factor and substantial net profit. It performs substantially well under market conditions akin to those observed, with a good balance between risk and reward. The strategy's performance is noteworthy when compared to its buy & hold return counterpart, offering a compelling case for its application in active crypto trading.

Risk Management

The current risk management approach is adequate, as reflected by the acceptable maximum drawdown and profit factor. Nevertheless, given the volatility of 100.69%, there is room for enhancing risk management. Potential improvements include:

  • Employing less leverage to reduce maximum drawdown and manage volatility more effectively.
  • Incorporating dynamic stop-loss mechanisms that react to market conditions.
  • Improving the robustness of position sizing strategies to account for large trades with potential outsized impacts.

Improvement Suggestions

To enhance the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Refine and optimize trading parameters regularly to maintain performance consistency as market dynamics evolve.
  • Incorporate additional technical indicators that could improve the strategy’s adaptability to diverse market conditions.
  • Carry out extensive out-of-sample testing, along with stress testing, to solidify the strategy's viability across various financial climates.
  • Integrate advanced risk management techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, to estimate potential drawdown scenarios and optimize the risk-reward balance.

Final Opinion

In summary, this strategy illustrates strong performance with a notable positive return and adequate risk-adjusted metrics. While the volatility is high, the strategy’s low drawdown proportion to this volatility suggests a satisfactory risk management structure. Continuous optimization and careful tweaking are needed to uphold its impressive performance while minimizing risk.

Recommendation: Proceed with further optimization and testing of the strategy. Implement the suggested upgrades to solidify its robustness against market volatility while striving for enhanced returns.

AI Quant, can you analyze this strategy?

Standard Monthly Profit

This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
20180.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%16.91%
20199.35%7.61%-3.38%-3.25%-0.51%6.89%0.00%-5.09%2.01%-4.00%-2.83%-9.57%
2020-14.82%-2.39%22.17%28.48%0.00%-5.67%25.01%9.62%9.63%19.93%19.14%28.75%
2021-5.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%9.80%4.78%0.00%14.73%18.83%17.03%5.57%
202222.19%17.32%9.83%11.65%7.54%7.46%0.00%14.80%-0.58%6.60%-5.21%0.00%
202344.32%-1.40%16.43%8.06%-4.09%10.43%6.20%-2.39%3.29%14.51%-5.11%5.38%
20240.00%20.00%9.85%7.53%4.03%11.79%0.00%-5.09%-9.58%2.20%Login to see resultsLogin to see results
2025Login to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see results0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Live Trades Stats

BTC

Base Currency

17

Number of Trades

20.08%

Cumulative Returns

47.06%

Win Rate

2024-04-23

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

5.09%

30 Days

24.94%

60 Days

7.22%

90 Days

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit6027255.946027.264630018.564630.021397237.371397.24
Gross Profit9034476.429034.486624139.786624.142410336.642410.34
Gross Loss3007220.493007.221994121.221994.121013099.271013.1
Commission Paid300679.28207760.1692919.12
Buy & Hold Return1802654.711802.65
Max Equity Run-up6037403.9698.53
Max Drawdown568173.737.45
Max Contracts Held372.0323.0372.0
Total Closed Trades137.087.050.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades86.055.031.0
Number Losing Trades51.032.019.0
Percent Profitable62.7763.2262.0
Avg P&l43994.571.8753218.62.0927944.751.5
Avg Winning Trade105052.054.42120438.914.6477752.794.04
Avg Losing Trade58965.112.4362316.292.353321.012.63
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.7821.9331.458
Largest Winning Trade510948.03510948.03428813.96
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.788.786.27
Largest Losing Trade229106.15229106.15157418.76
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.334.334.3
Avg # Bars In Trades41.042.039.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades48.053.040.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades28.022.038.0
Sharpe Ratio0.6
Sortino Ratio2.408
Profit Factor3.0043.3222.379
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit7112690.937112.696188308.926188.31924382.0924.38
Gross Profit13208933.3213208.939555915.279555.923653018.053653.02
Gross Loss6096242.396096.243367606.353367.612728636.042728.64
Commission Paid492665.63313444.89179220.73
Buy & Hold Return2901115.792901.12
Max Equity Run-up7968361.3198.88
Max Drawdown1464458.3237.45
Max Contracts Held372.0323.0372.0
Total Closed Trades154.096.058.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades94.060.034.0
Number Losing Trades60.036.024.0
Percent Profitable61.0462.558.62
Avg P&l46186.31.7164461.552.0315937.621.19
Avg Winning Trade140520.574.37159265.254.62107441.713.93
Avg Losing Trade101604.042.4593544.622.3113693.172.69
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3831.7030.945
Largest Winning Trade670808.38670808.38473436.92
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.788.786.27
Largest Losing Trade388132.23388132.23362395.06
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.334.334.3
Avg # Bars In Trades42.044.037.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades49.056.037.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades30.025.038.0
Sharpe Ratio0.535
Sortino Ratio1.954
Profit Factor2.1672.8381.339
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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© All rights reserved DaviddTech 2024.
Disclaimer: The performance outcomes presented on davidd.tech are theoretical and subject to many limitations. It should not be assumed that any accounts will or can replicate the profits or losses similar to those depicted. Theoretical performance is often created looking back, which does not account for all the variables that can impact trading outcomes. Various market dynamics or the execution of specific trading strategies may introduce discrepancies that are not reflected in these theoretical results, potentially influencing actual trading negatively. Historical success does not guarantee future returns. Market conditions evolve, suggesting that the effectiveness of these strategies may diminish over time, necessitating new approaches. Additionally, performance can vary significantly among different brokers, and there is no expectation for backtested results to align precisely with actual market performance.
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