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gentlesir stiffsurge arbusdt 45m homework 15.10.2024

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @gentlesir
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [17ab2738]

🛡️ STIFFSURGE ARBUSDT 45M HOMEWORK 15.10.2024

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - November 17, 2024
0
  • icon 1
  • icon 1

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +-3.39% Updated 11 hours ago
Total Return Primary
4380.31%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
55.76%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
39.9%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.264
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
4040.12%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
920
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Mar 30, 2023
984
Days
920
Trades
Last Trade
Dec 7, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-03-30 08:45:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.67
  • Sortino Ratio: 2.64
  • Calmar: -8.12
  • Longest DD Days: 112.00
  • Volatility: 49.13
  • Skew: -0.03
  • Kurtosis: -0.59
  • Expected Daily: 0.46
  • Expected Monthly: 10.11
  • Expected Yearly: 217.74
  • Kelly Criterion: 11.87
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -4.83
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -5.53
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-12-07 23:45:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 10
  • Number Winning Trades 513
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 5
  • Number Losing Trades: 407
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -8.12
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.27
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.01
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.27
  • Tail Ratio: 1.11
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.59
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.12
  • Serenity Index: 744.71

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
-599.07%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-448.15%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-1,667.45%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-1,009.97%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
+920.34%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
-7.02%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-5.72%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-23.94%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-18.83%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
+22.99%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
55.8%
Total Trades
920
Cumulative
4,380.32%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
347.38%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+2.34%
+4.66%
Simple P&L
+23.08%
+30.61%
Simple P&L
+16.25%
+8.92%
Simple P&L
+5.75%
-5.39%
Simple P&L
+7.05%
+2.14%
Simple P&L
-4.26%
-1.72%
Simple P&L
+35.10%
+15.89%
Simple P&L
-1.98%
+7.64%
Simple P&L
+8.60%
-7.11%
Simple P&L
-5.52%
-2.73%
Simple P&L
2024
+23.97%
+2.74%
Simple P&L
-7.54%
+1.79%
Simple P&L
+18.47%
+8.10%
Simple P&L
+60.52%
+27.39%
Simple P&L
+46.38%
+11.75%
Simple P&L
+17.91%
+8.68%
Simple P&L
+51.98%
+17.03%
Simple P&L
+45.32%
+2.13%
Simple P&L
-26.30%
-8.15%
Simple P&L
+23.06%
-0.37%
Simple P&L
+59.26%
+15.18%
Simple P&L
+62.47%
+16.16%
Simple P&L
2025
+259.76%
+37.03%
Simple P&L
+286.86%
+24.06%
Simple P&L
+242.55%
+16.26%
Simple P&L
+280.73%
+25.47%
Simple P&L
+1,218.30%
+48.12%
Simple P&L
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Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

920

Number of Trades

4380.32%

Cumulative Returns

55.76%

Win Rate

2024-10-15

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-5.72%

30 Days

-18.83%

60 Days

-23.94%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l590.40.13
Net Profit339934.73339.93-92910.78-92.91432845.51432.85
Gross Profit1878623.971878.62726405.66726.411152218.311152.22
Gross Loss1538689.241538.69819316.44819.32719372.8719.37
Commission Paid101444.0444330.7357113.31
Buy & Hold Return-54234.53-54.23
Max Contracts Held14623351342401.01462335.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration7 days
Avg Equity Run-up29028.6429.03
Max Equity Run-up375809.378.99
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration10 days
Avg Equity Drawdown25965.0325.97
Max Drawdown89181.8224.57
Total Closed Trades541.0231.0310.0
Total Open Trades1.01.00.0
Number Winning Trades290.0102.0188.0
Number Losing Trades251.0129.0122.0
Percent Profitable53.644.1660.65
Avg P&l628.350.22-402.21-0.081396.280.45
Avg Winning Trade6478.012.627121.623.06128.822.42
Avg Losing Trade6130.242.556351.292.515896.52.6
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.0571.1211.039
Largest Winning Trade38349.1422548.7338349.14
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.295.048.29
Largest Losing Trade24105.2624105.2620270.59
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.074.074.07
Avg # Bars In Trades17.017.016.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades17.019.016.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades16.015.017.0
Sharpe Ratio0.713
Sortino Ratio3.262
Profit Factor1.2210.8871.602
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit4380314.954380.313115525.193115.531264789.761264.79
Gross Profit20966754.8420966.7510012411.1110012.4110954343.7310954.34
Gross Loss16586439.916586.446896885.926896.899689553.979689.55
Commission Paid950035.03417053.75532981.27
Buy & Hold Return-83412.05-83.41
Max Contracts Held4052705835500443.040527058.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration6 days
Avg Equity Run-up167107.73167.11
Max Equity Run-up7532897.8198.69
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration9 days
Avg Equity Drawdown132929.59132.93
Max Drawdown2974667.5639.9
Total Closed Trades920.0394.0526.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades513.0195.0318.0
Number Losing Trades407.0199.0208.0
Percent Profitable55.7649.4960.46
Avg P&l4761.210.387907.420.262404.540.46
Avg Winning Trade40870.872.8251345.73.2234447.622.58
Avg Losing Trade40752.922.734657.722.6346584.392.77
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.0031.4820.739
Largest Winning Trade459185.34459185.34319358.75
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.297.028.29
Largest Losing Trade396876.28339986.12396876.28
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.074.074.07
Avg # Bars In Trades16.018.015.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades16.020.015.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades16.016.016.0
Sharpe Ratio0.666
Sortino Ratio2.644
Profit Factor1.2641.4521.131
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 309.98%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 309.98%
Sharpe Ratio 0.666
Profit Factor 1.264
Maximum Drawdown -39.9%
Volatility (Annualized) 49.13%

The strategy demonstrates a substantial cumulative return of 309.98% and a respectable annualized return. The Sharpe ratio of 0.666 indicates good risk-adjusted returns, particularly as it surpasses the threshold for being considered good in the crypto space. Additionally, the maximum drawdown just under 40% is comfortable, demonstrating controlled downside risk in line with acceptable limits. The profit factor of 1.264 indicates a reasonable return per unit of risk, suggesting long-term potential under suitable conditions.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data, this strategy appears viable for real-world trading, exhibiting potential in terms of return and risk-adjusted metrics. The strategy shows effectiveness with a positive edge in a volatile market. Identifying the specific market conditions under which the strategy excels, such as trending versus range-bound markets, will be critical to future performance predictions. Despite declining markets ('Buy & Hold Return' of -83.41%), the relative alpha of 4633.97 is impressive. Further market condition analysis would bolster confidence in continued success.

Risk Management

The strategy demonstrates sound risk management practices, including achieving a maximum drawdown below industry concern levels. The Gain/Pain Ratio of 1.27 confirms efficient risk usage but suggests room for improvement. Considerations for risk management enhancements include:

  • Implement mechanisms to adjust leverage dynamically based on volatility to reduce potential drawdown further.
  • Incorporate stop-loss limits that correlate with market volatility to limit exposure to adverse trends.
  • Explore incorporating hedging techniques or diversifying asset selections to minimize systematic risk impact.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy's performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize leverage and position sizing algorithms to decrease drawdown risks while maintaining returns.
  • Introduce advanced technical indicators to refine signal accuracy for trade initiation and termination.
  • Engage in out-of-sample and stress testing to evaluate the strategy's adaptability across heterogeneous market environments.
  • Incorporate machine learning models for pattern recognition that could opportunize potential emerging market trends.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy exhibits strong potential with significant returns and reasonable risk-adjusted performance metrics. Despite a challenging market backdrop, it continues to deliver solid outcomes with an effective drawdown control mechanism. Nevertheless, further optimization and validation through alternative market scenarios and leveraging technology could ensure robust future performance.

Recommendation: Proceed with further testing and optimization of the strategy. Implement suggested improvements, especially around risk management, to increase robustness and adapt the risk management framework to handle market volatility more effectively.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
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Win
Loss
Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
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Trend Strength
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Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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