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DaviddTech
Traders should know
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chibuku wolfbear taousdt 45m 17.12.2024

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TREND FOLLOWING 45 minutes @chibuku
● Live

Wolf & Bear [v5] by @DavidTech 🧠 by @DaviddTech 🤖 [44af1414]

🛡️ WOLFBEAR TAOUSDT 45M 17.12.2024

Trading Pair
TAO
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - January 19, 2025
0
  • icon 1
  • icon 2
  • icon 1

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +2.8% Updated 5 hours ago
Total Return Primary
351.24%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
55.39%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.158
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-2.72%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
269
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Feb 12, 2024
766
Days
269
Trades
Last Trade
Mar 19, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2024-02-12 05:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.48
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.00
  • Calmar: -2.15
  • Longest DD Days: 100.00
  • Volatility: 64.83
  • Skew: -0.08
  • Kurtosis: -0.74
  • Expected Daily: 0.64
  • Expected Monthly: 14.25
  • Expected Yearly: 394.84
  • Kelly Criterion: 7.21
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -6.06
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -7.27
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-03-19 11:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 11
  • Number Winning Trades 149
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 8
  • Number Losing Trades: 120
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -2.15
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.15
  • Payoff Ratio: 0.94
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.15
  • Tail Ratio: 1.34
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.16
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 2.64
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.14
  • Serenity Index: 11.42

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.18%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.34%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.47%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
-0.58%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-0.25%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
+2.80%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
-21.40%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-29.91%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-32.67%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-17.98%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Win Rate
55.4%
Total Trades
269
Cumulative
-3.14%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
121.53%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2024
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-5.44%
-2.02%
Simple P&L
+4.83%
+11.83%
Simple P&L
+0.56%
+12.38%
Simple P&L
-3.22%
+21.76%
Simple P&L
+1.61%
+13.42%
Simple P&L
+1.07%
+19.57%
Simple P&L
+0.25%
+15.29%
Simple P&L
-4.03%
+14.15%
Simple P&L
+0.62%
+4.03%
Simple P&L
+0.17%
+24.89%
Simple P&L
-0.19%
+5.96%
Simple P&L
2025
+3.64%
-0.22%
Simple P&L
-0.35%
+14.58%
Simple P&L
+1.93%
+12.20%
Simple P&L
-2.38%
-6.00%
Simple P&L
+2.07%
+6.24%
Simple P&L
-0.14%
+0.49%
Simple P&L
+0.29%
-20.10%
Simple P&L
+0.48%
-1.39%
Simple P&L
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2026
••••
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••••
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••••
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

269

Number of Trades

-3.14%

Cumulative Returns

55.39%

Win Rate

2024-12-17

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-21.4%

30 Days

-32.67%

60 Days

-29.91%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit351239.17351.24150274.28150.27200964.9200.96
Gross Profit2579661.842579.661453794.241453.791125867.61125.87
Gross Loss2228422.672228.421303519.961303.52924902.7924.9
Expected Payoff1305.721138.441466.9
Commission Paid125046.6559666.8165379.84
Buy & Hold Return-53954.64-53.95
Buy & Hold % Gain-53.95
Strategy Outperformance405193.81
Max Contracts Held55604772.05560.0
Annualized Return (cagr)102.5253.6767.53
Return On Initial Capital351.24150.27200.96
Account Size Required432957.04
Return On Account Size Required81.1334.7146.42
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)16 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)64852.1264.85
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)231740.72231.74
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)793763.8889.36
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)793.76
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)27 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)58480.4458.48
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.810.350.46
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)425832.04425.83
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)432957.0449.73
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)432.96
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss542.06231.91382.96
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.324.122.96
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.914.975.67
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades269.0132.0137.0
Number Winning Trades149.061.088.0
Number Losing Trades120.071.049.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable55.3946.2164.23
Avg P&l1305.720.451138.440.421466.90.48
Avg Winning Trade17313.173.8723832.695.412793.952.81
Avg Losing Trade18570.193.7918359.443.8618875.573.69
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss0.9321.2980.678
Largest Winning Trade59834.3459834.3433319.64
Largest Winning Trade Percent5.45.44.05
Largest Losing Trade64797.3264797.3252477.02
Largest Losing Trade Percent6.616.516.61
Avg # Bars In Trades19.023.015.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades18.025.013.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.022.018.0
Sharpe Ratio0.483
Sortino Ratio0.999
Profit Factor1.1581.1151.217
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit351239.17351.24150274.28150.27200964.9200.96
Gross Profit2579661.842579.661453794.241453.791125867.61125.87
Gross Loss2228422.672228.421303519.961303.52924902.7924.9
Expected Payoff1305.721138.441466.9
Commission Paid125046.6559666.8165379.84
Buy & Hold Return-53954.64-53.95
Buy & Hold % Gain-53.95
Strategy Outperformance405193.81
Max Contracts Held55604772.05560.0
Annualized Return (cagr)102.5253.6767.53
Return On Initial Capital351.24150.27200.96
Account Size Required432957.04
Return On Account Size Required81.1334.7146.42
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)16 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)64852.1264.85
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)231740.72231.74
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)793763.8889.36
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)793.76
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)27 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)58480.4458.48
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.810.350.46
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)425832.04425.83
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)432957.0449.73
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)432.96
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss542.06231.91382.96
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit2.324.122.96
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.914.975.67
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades269.0132.0137.0
Number Winning Trades149.061.088.0
Number Losing Trades120.071.049.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable55.3946.2164.23
Avg P&l1305.720.451138.440.421466.90.48
Avg Winning Trade17313.173.8723832.695.412793.952.81
Avg Losing Trade18570.193.7918359.443.8618875.573.69
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss0.9321.2980.678
Largest Winning Trade59834.3459834.3433319.64
Largest Winning Trade Percent5.45.44.05
Largest Losing Trade64797.3264797.3252477.02
Largest Losing Trade Percent6.616.516.61
Avg # Bars In Trades19.023.015.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades18.025.013.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.022.018.0
Sharpe Ratio0.483
Sortino Ratio0.999
Profit Factor1.1581.1151.217
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 344.87%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 105.05%
Sharpe Ratio 0.477
Profit Factor 1.155
Maximum Drawdown -425.83%
Volatility (Annualized) 64.94%

The strategy reflects robust returns with a cumulative gain of 344.87% and an annualized return of 105.05%. Although the Sharpe Ratio of 0.477 is slightly below the preferred threshold of 0.5 for crypto, the strategy's risk-adjusted returns demonstrate room for enhancement. The profit factor is reasonably positive at 1.155, indicating more gains per unit of risk, although there is potential for improvement. The high maximum drawdown of -425.83% signifies a critical area requiring attention.

Strategy Viability

Considering the data, the strategy shows promise for real-world application but exhibits notable vulnerabilities due to the high drawdown. While it effectively outperforms a static buy and hold approach (indicated by the strategy outperformance of 394211.18), the strategy's success may require specific favorable conditions that include heightened volatility. Evaluating whether these conditions are sustainable will be critical.

Risk Management

The strategy’s risk management elements appear moderate. While no margin calls indicate some prudential leverage usage, the exceedingly high drawdown suggests demand for refined risk procedures. Recommendations include:

  • Reduce leverage to achieve a lower maximum drawdown, thereby enhancing the strategy’s appeal.
  • Implement more stringent stop-loss measures to contain downside risks.
  • Consider including diversification measures to spread risk across different crypto-assets.

Improvement Suggestions

To boost the strategy’s performance and toughness, consider these potential enhancements:

  • Optimize strategy parameters and leverage to lower drawdowns while safeguarding returns.
  • Incorporate additional robust technical indicators to refine entry and exit signals.
  • Conduct thorough out-of-sample testing with diverse datasets to bolster the strategy's robustness across varied market environments.
  • Augment the risk management approach with advanced techniques such as dynamic rebalancing and rollback mechanisms to ensure adaptability under changing market conditions.

Final Opinion

Overall, the strategy exhibits strong upside potential with commendable returns. Nevertheless, addressing high drawdowns and marginal risk-adjusted returns is essential for enhancing its robustness in different market situations.

Recommendation: Pursue further refinement and examination of the strategy. Integrate the suggested improvements to strengthen its risk-handling capabilities and align its leverage, reducing drawdown risk for a more balanced trading approach.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
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1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
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Edge Strength
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Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
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Win
Loss
Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
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Trend Strength
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Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

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