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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +1.53% Updated 11 hours ago
Total Return Primary
582.44%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
45.33%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
54.41%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.124
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-191.88%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
653
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jun 16, 2023
903
Days
653
Trades
Last Trade
Dec 5, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-06-16 18:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.27
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.06
  • Calmar: -0.39
  • Longest DD Days: 165.00
  • Volatility: 0.40
  • Skew: 0.73
  • Kurtosis: 8.34
  • Expected Daily: 0.00
  • Expected Monthly: 0.02
  • Expected Yearly: 0.22
  • Kelly Criterion: 5.60
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.03
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.06
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-12-05 20:15:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 296
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 9
  • Number Losing Trades: 357
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.39
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.14
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.37
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.14
  • Tail Ratio: 1.16
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.67
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 5.57
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.00
  • Serenity Index: 0.56

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+83.58%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+12.40%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
-84.31%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
+66.61%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
-14.28%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
+5.52%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+1.99%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+7.35%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+18.03%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+50.29%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
45.3%
Total Trades
654
Cumulative
572.50%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
242.53%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-19.83%
-15.66%
Simple P&L
-6.86%
-3.90%
Simple P&L
+20.45%
+13.71%
Simple P&L
-9.89%
+0.92%
Simple P&L
-7.22%
-3.04%
Simple P&L
+6.93%
+2.76%
Simple P&L
+1.24%
+4.13%
Simple P&L
2024
+44.23%
+20.30%
Simple P&L
-34.72%
-10.71%
Simple P&L
+15.01%
+6.53%
Simple P&L
+86.59%
+40.20%
Simple P&L
-8.49%
-7.56%
Simple P&L
-1.40%
-2.75%
Simple P&L
+26.02%
+12.45%
Simple P&L
-9.22%
+7.44%
Simple P&L
-47.01%
-10.74%
Simple P&L
-22.08%
+9.21%
Simple P&L
+3.27%
-2.99%
Simple P&L
-11.81%
+11.05%
Simple P&L
2025
+40.57%
+12.29%
Simple P&L
+42.28%
+16.14%
Simple P&L
+11.76%
+13.54%
Simple P&L
+29.63%
+19.93%
Simple P&L
+475.27%
+58.41%
Simple P&L
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Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

654

Number of Trades

572.5%

Cumulative Returns

45.26%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

1.99%

30 Days

18.03%

60 Days

7.35%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l19.312.24
Net Profit763.87763.87145.13145.13618.74618.74
Gross Profit3399.693399.691365.941365.942033.752033.75
Gross Loss2635.822635.821220.821220.821415.01415.0
Commission Paid210.79105.27105.51
Buy & Hold Return-54.39-54.39
Max Contracts Held76637139.07663.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration23 days
Avg Equity Run-up91.9291.92
Max Equity Run-up926.3393.84
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration18 days
Avg Equity Drawdown61.4861.48
Max Drawdown207.4754.41
Total Closed Trades555.0271.0284.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades255.0126.0129.0
Number Losing Trades300.0145.0155.0
Percent Profitable45.9546.4945.42
Avg P&l1.380.420.540.052.180.78
Avg Winning Trade13.333.9910.843.0615.774.89
Avg Losing Trade8.792.618.422.579.132.64
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5171.2881.727
Largest Winning Trade107.4584.79107.45
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade91.5891.5881.22
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.024.04.02
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.015.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.323
Sortino Ratio1.597
Profit Factor1.291.1191.437
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l-9.12-1.34
Net Profit582.44582.44254.45254.45327.99327.99
Gross Profit5287.085287.082080.32080.33206.783206.78
Gross Loss4704.644704.641825.851825.852878.792878.79
Commission Paid347.88160.67187.2
Buy & Hold Return-78.44-78.44
Max Contracts Held76637291.07663.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration21 days
Avg Equity Run-up109.89109.89
Max Equity Run-up1204.3195.2
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration20 days
Avg Equity Drawdown94.8994.89
Max Drawdown617.1854.41
Total Closed Trades653.0315.0338.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades296.0148.0148.0
Number Losing Trades357.0167.0190.0
Percent Profitable45.3346.9843.79
Avg P&l0.890.370.810.060.970.67
Avg Winning Trade17.864.0314.063.0521.675.0
Avg Losing Trade13.182.6510.932.5915.152.71
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3551.2861.43
Largest Winning Trade177.5185.04177.51
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade112.9291.58112.92
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.034.04.03
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.016.032.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.024.0
Sharpe Ratio0.273
Sortino Ratio1.057
Profit Factor1.1241.1391.114
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

TradingView Screenshots

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated
```html

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Net Profit 548.17%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 22%
Sharpe Ratio 0.268
Profit Factor 1.118
Maximum Drawdown 54.41%
Volatility (Annualized) 40%

The strategy exhibits a strong net profit of 548.17% over its trading period. However, the Sharpe ratio of 0.268 is below the desired threshold of 0.5, indicating room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. The maximum drawdown of 54.41% suggests significant exposure to downside risk, which is above the recommended level of 40%.

Strategy Viability

While the strategy has achieved notable returns, the high maximum drawdown and relatively low Sharpe ratio raise concerns about its risk management effectiveness and consistency. Strategies with such high drawdowns may struggle in volatile periods without adjustments to leverage or trade structuring. It remains crucial to discern the market conditions under which this strategy thrives and adapt it for resilience in varying environments.

Risk Management

The strategy's risk management appears to need refinement, particularly in mitigating drawdowns and enhancing overall stability. Suggestions for bolstering risk management include:

  • Reducing leverage to decrease potential drawdowns, making the strategy more sustainable during market downturns.
  • Implementing tighter stop-loss mechanisms to prevent substantial losses on individual trades.
  • Considering diversification across more assets to spread risk and reduce dependency on individual trades.

Improvement Suggestions

To enhance the strategy’s robustness and effectiveness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Conduct parameter optimization to fine-tune indicators and improve trade entries and exits.
  • Explore the integration of supplementary technical indicators to better capture market trends.
  • Implement scenario analysis and stress testing to understand the strategy’s behavior under extreme market conditions.
  • Review historical data for potential adjustments in trade execution and asset selection.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy has demonstrated significant profitability but struggles with effective risk management, as evidenced by a high drawdown and modest Sharpe ratio. While the net profit is optimistic, these risk aspects must be addressed for sustainable performance.

Recommendation: Proceed with modifications to the strategy, focusing on risk management improvements and leveraging dynamic optimization. This approach should help achieve better risk-adjusted returns and maintain relevant performance across diverse market conditions.

```
⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
0.00
0.00
Loss
0.00
0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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