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DaviddTech
Traders should know
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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
  • icon 3
  • icon 3
  • icon 1
  • icon 2
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +0% Updated 6 months ago
Total Return Primary
211.74%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
44.8%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.04
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
2.76%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
587
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jan 9, 2024
986
Days
587
Trades
Last Trade
Mar 22, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2024-01-09 20:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.24
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.71
  • Calmar: -0.11
  • Longest DD Days: 165.00
  • Volatility: 0.44
  • Skew: 0.65
  • Kurtosis: 5.81
  • Expected Daily: 0.00
  • Expected Monthly: 0.01
  • Expected Yearly: 0.09
  • Kelly Criterion: 1.80
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.04
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.07
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-03-22 15:42:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 263
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 11
  • Number Losing Trades: 324
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.11
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.04
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.28
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.04
  • Tail Ratio: 1.05
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.01
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 4.62
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.00
  • Serenity Index: 0.05

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
44.9%
Total Trades
588
Cumulative
-0.65%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
201.74%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2024
-2.61%
+15.29%
Simple P&L
-1.30%
-10.69%
Simple P&L
+0.78%
+6.53%
Simple P&L
-0.37%
+40.20%
Simple P&L
+1.73%
-7.55%
Simple P&L
+1.39%
-2.73%
Simple P&L
-0.81%
+12.45%
Simple P&L
-1.88%
+7.54%
Simple P&L
+0.82%
-10.66%
Simple P&L
-0.33%
+9.20%
Simple P&L
+1.18%
-2.99%
Simple P&L
-1.83%
+11.07%
Simple P&L
2025
+2.91%
+12.31%
Simple P&L
-2.36%
+16.11%
Simple P&L
-0.13%
+13.63%
Simple P&L
-0.37%
+19.91%
Simple P&L
+2.53%
+58.35%
Simple P&L
-1.18%
+17.16%
Simple P&L
-0.22%
+29.45%
Simple P&L
+0.14%
+10.11%
Simple P&L
+1.19%
-23.29%
Simple P&L
-2.41%
+13.61%
Simple P&L
+2.85%
-1.59%
Simple P&L
-1.32%
-48.60%
Simple P&L
2026
-0.44%
+2.03%
Simple P&L
-0.86%
+20.93%
Simple P&L
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

588

Number of Trades

-0.65%

Cumulative Returns

44.9%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

0%

30 Days

0%

60 Days

0%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l8.952.87
Net Profit211.74211.7481.1981.19130.55130.55
Gross Profit5527.035527.032212.032212.033315.03315.0
Gross Loss5315.285315.282130.842130.843184.453184.45
Expected Payoff0.360.290.43
Commission Paid378.97177.94201.03
Buy & Hold Return-94.68-94.68
Buy & Hold % Gain-94.68
Strategy Outperformance306.42
Max Contracts Held1223410121.012234.0
Annualized Return (cagr)66.7530.6445.59
Return On Initial Capital211.7481.19130.55
Account Size Required926.14
Return On Account Size Required22.868.7714.1
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)18 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)118.43118.43
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)281.73281.73
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)1174.1593.65
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)1174.15
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)25 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)123.7123.7
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.240.10.15
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)921.46921.46
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)926.1479.52
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)926.14
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss189.2289.77116.66
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit3.183.815.3
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.114.243.51
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Total Closed Trades587.0282.0305.0
Number Winning Trades263.0132.0131.0
Number Losing Trades324.0150.0174.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable44.846.8142.95
Avg P&l0.360.340.290.020.430.64
Avg Winning Trade21.024.1216.763.0825.315.17
Avg Losing Trade16.412.7314.212.6818.32.78
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.2811.181.383
Largest Winning Trade175.7384.29175.73
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade111.990.44111.9
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.013.994.01
Avg # Bars In Trades22.016.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.017.031.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.024.0
Sharpe Ratio0.239
Sortino Ratio0.71
Profit Factor1.041.0381.041
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l8.982.88
Net Profit211.74211.7481.1981.19130.55130.55
Gross Profit5527.035527.032212.032212.033315.03315.0
Gross Loss5315.285315.282130.842130.843184.453184.45
Expected Payoff0.360.290.43
Commission Paid378.97177.94201.03
Buy & Hold Return-94.68-94.68
Buy & Hold % Gain-94.68
Strategy Outperformance306.42
Max Contracts Held1223410121.012234.0
Annualized Return (cagr)66.7530.6445.59
Return On Initial Capital211.7481.19130.55
Account Size Required926.14
Return On Account Size Required22.868.7714.1
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)18 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)118.43118.43
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)281.73281.73
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)1174.1593.65
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)1174.15
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)25 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)123.7123.7
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.240.10.15
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)921.46921.46
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)926.1479.52
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)926.14
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss189.2289.77116.66
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit3.183.815.3
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.114.243.51
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Total Closed Trades587.0282.0305.0
Number Winning Trades263.0132.0131.0
Number Losing Trades324.0150.0174.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable44.846.8142.95
Avg P&l0.360.340.290.020.430.64
Avg Winning Trade21.024.1216.763.0825.315.17
Avg Losing Trade16.412.7314.212.6818.32.78
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.2811.181.383
Largest Winning Trade175.7384.29175.73
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade111.990.44111.9
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.013.994.01
Avg # Bars In Trades22.016.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.017.031.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.024.0
Sharpe Ratio0.239
Sortino Ratio0.71
Profit Factor1.041.0381.041
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
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Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Net Profit 211.74%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 66.75%
Sharpe Ratio 0.239
Profit Factor 1.04
Maximum Drawdown (close-to-close) 921.46
Volatility (Annualized) 44%
Percent Profitable 44.8%

The strategy demonstrates a respectable net profit of 211.74% and a substantial annualized return of 66.75%, indicating potential for growth. However, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.239 is below the preferred level of 0.5, suggesting room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. The profit factor of 1.04, while positive, indicates that the strategy's wins are only slightly larger than its losses. Notably, the maximum drawdown of 921.46% is alarmingly high, presenting a major risk concern.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, there are challenges to the strategy's viability in real-world trading. The strategy’s ability to outperform traditional hold returns (by 306.42%) is positive; however, the significant drawdown and low Sharpe Ratio suggest high risk relative to return. Assessing the market conditions under which this strategy performs best is crucial for determining its fit in diverse market scenarios.

Risk Management

The current risk management approach appears insufficient given the high maximum drawdown. To enhance risk management, the following approaches could be considered:

  • Reducing leverage to help decrease maximum drawdown risk.
  • Implementing more effective stop-loss measures to protect capital.
  • Introducing diversification strategies to reduce exposure to individual market events.

Improvement Suggestions

To bolster the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Refine the strategy parameters to enhance the balance between risk and return.
  • Evaluate additional technical indicators to improve predictability of entry and exit points.
  • Perform comprehensive out-of-sample testing and validation across varied market conditions.
  • Enhance the risk management protocol with advanced tools like stress testing and scenario analysis to mitigate drastic equity declines.

Final Opinion

The strategy shows the potential for substantial returns; however, it is marred by high drawdowns and low risk-adjusted metrics. The drawdown issue underscores a pressing need for optimizing risk management practices to ensure longevity and sustainability in various market environments.

Recommendation: Proceed with extensive optimization and rigorous validation of the strategy. Implement suggested risk management enhancements and adjustments to create a more resilient trading strategy capable of managing high volatility.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
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1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
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Skewness --
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Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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