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DaviddTech
DaviddTech
Traders should know
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    • Documentation
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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
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  • icon 2
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +14.38% Updated 3 hours ago
Total Return Primary
324.02%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
44.88%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.064
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-0.13%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
566
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jan 9, 2024
774
Days
566
Trades
Last Trade
Feb 21, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2024-01-09 20:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.27
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.83
  • Calmar: -0.17
  • Longest DD Days: 165.00
  • Volatility: 0.44
  • Skew: 0.65
  • Kurtosis: 5.86
  • Expected Daily: 0.00
  • Expected Monthly: 0.01
  • Expected Yearly: 0.14
  • Kelly Criterion: 3.20
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.04
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.07
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-02-21 06:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 254
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 11
  • Number Losing Trades: 312
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.17
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.08
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.31
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.08
  • Tail Ratio: 1.03
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.04
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 4.69
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.00
  • Serenity Index: 0.13

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
-3.17%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-2.48%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-1.27%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-1.29%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-3.29%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
+11.57%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+27.34%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
-24.46%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 60 Days
+11.35%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
-51.53%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Win Rate
44.9%
Total Trades
566
Cumulative
-3.54%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
205.88%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2024
-2.61%
+15.29%
Simple P&L
-0.73%
-10.69%
Simple P&L
+0.78%
+6.53%
Simple P&L
-0.37%
+40.20%
Simple P&L
+1.73%
-7.55%
Simple P&L
+1.39%
-2.73%
Simple P&L
-0.81%
+12.45%
Simple P&L
-1.88%
+7.54%
Simple P&L
+0.82%
-10.66%
Simple P&L
-2.32%
+9.20%
Simple P&L
-1.19%
-2.99%
Simple P&L
-0.25%
+11.07%
Simple P&L
2025
+2.91%
+12.31%
Simple P&L
-2.36%
+16.11%
Simple P&L
-0.13%
+13.63%
Simple P&L
-0.37%
+19.91%
Simple P&L
-0.38%
+58.35%
Simple P&L
+0.70%
+17.16%
Simple P&L
+1.78%
+29.45%
Simple P&L
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2026
••••
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••••
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

566

Number of Trades

-3.54%

Cumulative Returns

44.88%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

27.34%

30 Days

11.35%

60 Days

-24.46%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit324.02324.02146.41146.41177.61177.61
Gross Profit5374.465374.462116.682116.683257.773257.77
Gross Loss5050.435050.431970.271970.273080.163080.16
Expected Payoff0.570.540.6
Commission Paid363.76168.75195.01
Buy & Hold Return-94.37-94.37
Buy & Hold % Gain-94.37
Strategy Outperformance418.39
Max Contracts Held96477349.09647.0
Annualized Return (cagr)96.1252.2760.98
Return On Initial Capital324.02146.41177.61
Account Size Required926.14
Return On Account Size Required34.9915.8119.18
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)16 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)124.32124.32
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)281.73281.73
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)1174.1593.65
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)1174.15
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)25 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)123.7123.7
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.350.160.19
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)921.46921.46
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)926.1479.52
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)926.14
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss289.55161.88158.72
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit3.273.985.39
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.224.593.63
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades566.0269.0297.0
Number Winning Trades254.0126.0128.0
Number Losing Trades312.0143.0169.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable44.8846.8443.1
Avg P&l0.570.360.540.030.60.66
Avg Winning Trade21.164.1516.83.0825.455.2
Avg Losing Trade16.192.7213.782.6518.232.77
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3071.2191.396
Largest Winning Trade175.7384.29175.73
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade111.990.44111.9
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.013.994.01
Avg # Bars In Trades21.016.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.017.031.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades19.014.023.0
Sharpe Ratio0.268
Sortino Ratio0.828
Profit Factor1.0641.0741.058
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit324.02324.02146.41146.41177.61177.61
Gross Profit5374.465374.462116.682116.683257.773257.77
Gross Loss5050.435050.431970.271970.273080.163080.16
Expected Payoff0.570.540.6
Commission Paid363.76168.75195.01
Buy & Hold Return-94.37-94.37
Buy & Hold % Gain-94.37
Strategy Outperformance418.39
Max Contracts Held96477349.09647.0
Annualized Return (cagr)96.1252.2760.98
Return On Initial Capital324.02146.41177.61
Account Size Required926.14
Return On Account Size Required34.9915.8119.18
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)16 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)124.32124.32
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)281.73281.73
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)1174.1593.65
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)1174.15
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)25 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)123.7123.7
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown0.350.160.19
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)921.46921.46
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)926.1479.52
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)926.14
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss289.55161.88158.72
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit3.273.985.39
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss2.224.593.63
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades566.0269.0297.0
Number Winning Trades254.0126.0128.0
Number Losing Trades312.0143.0169.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable44.8846.8443.1
Avg P&l0.570.360.540.030.60.66
Avg Winning Trade21.164.1516.83.0825.455.2
Avg Losing Trade16.192.7213.782.6518.232.77
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3071.2191.396
Largest Winning Trade175.7384.29175.73
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade111.990.44111.9
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.013.994.01
Avg # Bars In Trades21.016.027.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.017.031.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades19.014.023.0
Sharpe Ratio0.268
Sortino Ratio0.828
Profit Factor1.0641.0741.058
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
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Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 208.18%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 69.45%
Sharpe Ratio 0.24
Profit Factor 1.041
Maximum Drawdown 0%
Volatility (Annualized) 44%

The strategy shows a strong cumulative return of 208.18% with a respectable annualized return of 69.45%. Although the Sharpe Ratio of 0.24 is below the target of 0.5, the maximum drawdown of 0% is outstanding given the benchmark, demonstrating excellent downside protection. The profit factor at 1.041 indicates slightly more gains than losses per trade, which can be improved.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, this strategy exhibits potential viability for real-world trading. The strategy outperforms traditional buy-and-hold methods significantly, especially under favorable market conditions. However, improvement is needed in risk-adjusted performance, as suggested by the Sharpe Ratio. It is also essential to assess if current favorable market conditions will persist to benefit the strategy.

Risk Management

While the strategy's maximum drawdown is exemplary, suggesting strong risk management, additional improvements can be considered given the high volatility of 44%. Suggestions include:

  • Enhanced position sizing strategies to better align with market volatility.
  • Advanced stop-loss mechanisms for further minimizing potential losses.
  • Diversification of the asset pool to reduce exposure to specific risks.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize parameters to improve the Sharpe Ratio and increase risk-adjusted returns.
  • Adopt additional technical indicators to refine entry and exit timing.
  • Conduct comprehensive out-of-sample tests to prove robustness across different market conditions.
  • Leverage sophisticated risk management techniques, like stress testing and Value-at-Risk adjustments.
  • Since maximum drawdown is exceptional, consider cautiously employing leverage to scale potential gains while managing risk effectively.

Final Opinion

In summary, this strategy leverages strong cumulative and annualized returns with an outstanding maximum drawdown, showcasing robust risk management. However, there is room for improvement in risk-adjusted performance and return consistency. Refinements in strategy parameters and risk management techniques can bolster the strategy's robustness and profitability.

Recommendation: Proceed with further optimization and testing to strengthen the strategy's foundation and increase its potential for higher risk-adjusted returns. The exceptional drawdown management offers an opportunity to carefully introduce more leverage for higher returns, keeping in mind market volatility.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
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Edge Strength
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W L Win/Loss States
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Loss
Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
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Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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