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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +-11.9% Updated 8 hours ago
Total Return Primary
262.97%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
44.41%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
69.85%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.052
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-503.94%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
671
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jun 16, 2023
920
Days
671
Trades
Last Trade
Dec 22, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-06-16 18:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.22
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.73
  • Calmar: -0.13
  • Longest DD Days: 165.00
  • Volatility: 0.40
  • Skew: 0.73
  • Kurtosis: 7.98
  • Expected Daily: 0.00
  • Expected Monthly: 0.01
  • Expected Yearly: 0.10
  • Kelly Criterion: 2.11
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.04
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.06
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-12-22 15:45:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 298
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 11
  • Number Losing Trades: 373
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.13
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.05
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.32
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.05
  • Tail Ratio: 1.01
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.64
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 5.38
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.00
  • Serenity Index: 0.08

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
-100.60%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-210.64%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-410.99%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-309.38%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-473.00%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 7 Days
-11.90%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 30 Days
-31.46%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 90 Days
-27.29%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-38.04%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
-6.88%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Win Rate
44.3%
Total Trades
672
Cumulative
260.44%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
202.46%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-19.83%
-15.66%
Simple P&L
-6.86%
-3.90%
Simple P&L
+20.45%
+13.71%
Simple P&L
-9.89%
+0.92%
Simple P&L
-4.96%
-3.04%
Simple P&L
+3.30%
+2.76%
Simple P&L
+5.23%
+4.13%
Simple P&L
2024
+32.89%
+20.30%
Simple P&L
-34.72%
-10.71%
Simple P&L
+15.01%
+6.53%
Simple P&L
+86.59%
+40.20%
Simple P&L
-8.49%
-7.56%
Simple P&L
-1.40%
-2.75%
Simple P&L
+26.02%
+12.45%
Simple P&L
-9.22%
+7.44%
Simple P&L
-47.01%
-10.74%
Simple P&L
-31.41%
+9.21%
Simple P&L
-13.71%
-2.99%
Simple P&L
-1.13%
+11.05%
Simple P&L
2025
+40.57%
+12.29%
Simple P&L
+42.28%
+16.14%
Simple P&L
+11.76%
+13.54%
Simple P&L
+29.63%
+19.93%
Simple P&L
+470.41%
+58.41%
Simple P&L
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Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

672

Number of Trades

260.44%

Cumulative Returns

44.35%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-31.46%

30 Days

-38.04%

60 Days

-27.29%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l19.312.24
Net Profit763.87763.87145.13145.13618.74618.74
Gross Profit3399.693399.691365.941365.942033.752033.75
Gross Loss2635.822635.821220.821220.821415.01415.0
Commission Paid210.79105.27105.51
Buy & Hold Return-54.39-54.39
Max Contracts Held76637139.07663.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration23 days
Avg Equity Run-up91.9291.92
Max Equity Run-up926.3393.84
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration18 days
Avg Equity Drawdown61.4861.48
Max Drawdown207.4754.41
Total Closed Trades555.0271.0284.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades255.0126.0129.0
Number Losing Trades300.0145.0155.0
Percent Profitable45.9546.4945.42
Avg P&l1.380.420.540.052.180.78
Avg Winning Trade13.333.9910.843.0615.774.89
Avg Losing Trade8.792.618.422.579.132.64
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5171.2881.727
Largest Winning Trade107.4584.79107.45
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade91.5891.5881.22
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.024.04.02
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.015.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.323
Sortino Ratio1.597
Profit Factor1.291.1191.437
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100
Open P&l-1.44-0.4
Net Profit262.97262.97140.66140.66122.31122.31
Gross Profit5362.665362.662155.872155.873206.783206.78
Gross Loss5099.685099.682015.212015.213084.473084.47
Commission Paid366.75172.38194.37
Buy & Hold Return-79.81-79.81
Max Contracts Held76637368.07663.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration21 days
Avg Equity Run-up109.8109.8
Max Equity Run-up1204.3195.2
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration22 days
Avg Equity Drawdown105.26105.26
Max Drawdown820.9469.85
Total Closed Trades671.0325.0346.0
Total Open Trades1.01.00.0
Number Winning Trades298.0150.0148.0
Number Losing Trades373.0175.0198.0
Percent Profitable44.4146.1542.77
Avg P&l0.390.30.430.010.350.58
Avg Winning Trade18.04.0214.373.0521.675.0
Avg Losing Trade13.672.6711.522.615.582.73
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3161.2481.391
Largest Winning Trade177.5185.04177.51
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade112.9291.58112.92
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.034.04.03
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.017.032.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades19.014.024.0
Sharpe Ratio0.224
Sortino Ratio0.733
Profit Factor1.0521.071.04
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Net Profit 262.97%
Sharpe Ratio 0.224
Profit Factor 1.05
Maximum Drawdown 69.85%
Volatility 40%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 10%

The strategy achieves a notable cumulative net profit of 262.97% and a respectable annualized return of 10%. Although the Sharpe Ratio of 0.224 is below the threshold of 0.5, indicating some room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns, the Profit Factor of 1.05 still shows a slightly profitable edge. The maximum drawdown of 69.85% is a potential area of concern, but it can be a result of using high leverage, which can be adjusted.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, while the strategy demonstrates potential through a positive net profit, further refinement is needed for it to be considered highly viable for real-world trading. The maximum drawdown suggests volatility that may not suit all investors, especially those risk-averse. The conditions under which this strategy performs optimally need to be identified to better align with market persistence.

Risk Management

Currently, the strategy appears to have some risk management practices, as evident by the high Gain/Pain Ratio of 1.05. However, improvements are essential, especially in minimizing drawdowns and enhancing the risk-adjusted metrics. Some possible strategies include:

  • Reducing leverage to decrease the potential maximum drawdown.
  • Introducing more robust stop-loss mechanisms to protect against large losses.
  • Adjusting position sizes dynamically based on market conditions.

Improvement Suggestions

To enhance the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider these suggestions:

  • Optimize strategy parameters to improve the Sharpe Ratio and mitigate drawdowns.
  • Incorporate additional technical indicators to improve trade decision accuracy.
  • Conduct comprehensive out-of-sample testing and forward-testing to validate the strategy’s efficacy over broader market conditions.
  • Implement volatility targeting to more effectively manage position sizes during different market volatilities.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy offers a solid foundation with positive net returns, yet it needs enhancements to the risk management framework to ensure robustness and sustainability. The high drawdown and risk metrics could be significantly improved to make the strategy more appealing to a broader audience.

Recommendation: Proceed with revising the strategy, focusing on reducing drawdowns and improving risk-adjusted returns. Explore parameter optimization and further testing, especially concerning market volatility adaptability, to increase the strategy's attractiveness and reliability.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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