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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
  • icon 2
  • icon 2

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +0% Updated 1 week ago
Total Return Primary
664.2%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
45.62%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
54.41%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.163
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-109.54%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
616
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jun 16, 2023
864
Days
616
Trades
Last Trade
Oct 20, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-06-16 18:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.29
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.18
  • Calmar: -0.49
  • Longest DD Days: 165.00
  • Volatility: 0.39
  • Skew: 0.78
  • Kurtosis: 10.04
  • Expected Daily: 0.00
  • Expected Monthly: 0.02
  • Expected Yearly: 0.27
  • Kelly Criterion: 6.71
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.03
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.06
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-10-20 01:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 281
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 9
  • Number Losing Trades: 335
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.49
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.17
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.39
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.17
  • Tail Ratio: 1.49
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.90
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 6.19
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.00
  • Serenity Index: 0.85

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+44.76%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
-167.84%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
-330.60%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 180 Days
+504.51%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+11.49%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+9.42%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
-9.36%
SIMPLE SUM
LOSS
Last 180 Days
+111.33%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
45.5%
Total Trades
617
Cumulative
654.84%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
244.58%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-19.83%
-15.66%
Simple P&L
-6.86%
-3.90%
Simple P&L
+20.45%
+13.71%
Simple P&L
-9.89%
+0.92%
Simple P&L
-2.00%
-3.04%
Simple P&L
+6.93%
+2.76%
Simple P&L
+1.24%
+4.13%
Simple P&L
2024
+44.23%
+20.30%
Simple P&L
-39.06%
-10.71%
Simple P&L
+15.01%
+6.53%
Simple P&L
+86.59%
+40.20%
Simple P&L
-8.49%
-7.56%
Simple P&L
-1.40%
-2.75%
Simple P&L
+26.02%
+12.45%
Simple P&L
-9.22%
+7.44%
Simple P&L
-47.01%
-10.74%
Simple P&L
-22.08%
+9.21%
Simple P&L
+3.27%
-2.99%
Simple P&L
-11.81%
+11.05%
Simple P&L
2025
+40.57%
+12.29%
Simple P&L
+42.28%
+16.14%
Simple P&L
+11.76%
+13.54%
Simple P&L
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

617

Number of Trades

654.84%

Cumulative Returns

45.54%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

11.49%

30 Days

-9.36%

60 Days

9.42%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l19.312.24
Net Profit763.87763.87145.13145.13618.74618.74
Gross Profit3399.693399.691365.941365.942033.752033.75
Gross Loss2635.822635.821220.821220.821415.01415.0
Commission Paid210.79105.27105.51
Buy & Hold Return-54.39-54.39
Max Equity Run-up926.3393.84
Max Drawdown207.4754.41
Max Contracts Held7663.07139.07663.0
Total Closed Trades555.0271.0284.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades255.0126.0129.0
Number Losing Trades300.0145.0155.0
Percent Profitable45.9546.4945.42
Avg P&l1.380.420.540.052.180.78
Avg Winning Trade13.333.9910.843.0615.774.89
Avg Losing Trade8.792.618.422.579.132.64
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5171.2881.727
Largest Winning Trade107.4584.79107.45
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade91.5891.5881.22
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.024.04.02
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.015.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.323
Sortino Ratio1.597
Profit Factor1.291.1191.437
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l-8.42-1.1
Net Profit664.2664.2274.36274.36389.84389.84
Gross Profit4733.94733.91900.921900.922832.982832.98
Gross Loss4069.74069.71626.561626.562443.142443.14
Commission Paid307.09145.57161.52
Buy & Hold Return-66.69-66.69
Max Equity Run-up1204.3195.2
Max Drawdown585.2554.41
Max Contracts Held7663.07139.07663.0
Total Closed Trades616.0300.0316.0
Total Open Trades1.01.00.0
Number Winning Trades281.0140.0141.0
Number Losing Trades335.0160.0175.0
Percent Profitable45.6246.6744.62
Avg P&l1.080.40.910.041.230.74
Avg Winning Trade16.854.0213.583.0520.094.98
Avg Losing Trade12.152.6410.172.5913.962.68
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3871.3361.439
Largest Winning Trade177.5185.04177.51
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.276.988.27
Largest Losing Trade112.9291.58112.92
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.024.04.02
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.029.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.016.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.293
Sortino Ratio1.176
Profit Factor1.1631.1691.16
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
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Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Value
Net Profit 664.2%
CAGR 0.28%
Sharpe Ratio 0.293
Profit Factor 1.163
Max Drawdown 54.41%
Volatility (Annualized) 39%
Percent Profitable 45.62%

The strategy showcases a significant net profit of 664.2% with a moderate annualized volatility of 39%. However, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.293 suggests room for improvement in risk-adjusted performance, given our target is above 0.5 for crypto strategies. The Max Drawdown of 54.41% is a considerable concern, as it exceeds the 40% threshold typically considered acceptable.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, this strategy demonstrates strong potential, evidenced by robust net profits. However, its viability for real-world trading is somewhat challenged by its high drawdown and a Sharpe Ratio below the preferred level for crypto markets. The strategy appears to benefit from significant profits but faces risks under volatile market conditions, which need addressing to ensure sustainability and resilience.

Risk Management

The strategy exhibits some limitations in the risk management domain, particularly evident in its high maximum drawdown. Suggestions for improvement include:

  • Reducing leverage to decrease exposure and potentially limit drawdown.
  • Employing dynamic position sizing methods based on prevailing market conditions.
  • Implementing stricter stop-loss strategies to minimize excessive losses.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy’s performance, consider the following recommendations:

  • Conduct an in-depth analysis of parameter sensitivity to refine the strategy’s settings and optimize returns.
  • Incorporate alternative technical indicators to better time entry and exit points, potentially increasing the win rate.
  • Expand upon risk management techniques, possibly through backtesting different stop-loss and take-profit levels.
  • Gradually test modifications to ensure the strategy’s robustness across diverse market environments.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy offers significant potential due to its impressive net profits but necessitates improvements in risk management given its high drawdown and suboptimal Sharpe Ratio. While its performance indicates robust potential in certain market conditions, it should be further optimized and validated against unpredictable market fluctuations to ensure long-term viability.

Recommendation: Proceed with cautious testing and modifications of the strategy. Focus on reducing drawdowns through better leverage management, optimizing strategy parameters, and enhancing risk control measures to maintain strong performance in various market conditions.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
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Trend Strength
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Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
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Current Regime Age
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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