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DaviddTech
DaviddTech
Traders should know
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bigj_31180 stiffurge arbusdt 45m 29.07.2025

  • Homepage
TREND FOLOWING 45 minutes @bigj_31180
● Live

Stiff Surge by @DaviddTech 🤖 [5cd6d470]

🛡️ STIFFURGE ARBUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +-32.4% Updated 2 hours ago
Total Return Primary
1306.95%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
46.34%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
52%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.327
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-23.69%%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
574
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Jun 16, 2023
800
Days
574
Trades
Last Trade
Aug 24, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-06-16 18:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.36
  • Sortino Ratio: 1.93
  • Calmar: -3.61
  • Longest DD Days: 163.00
  • Volatility: 26.22
  • Skew: 0.82
  • Kurtosis: 6.11
  • Expected Daily: 0.16
  • Expected Monthly: 3.42
  • Expected Yearly: 49.65
  • Kelly Criterion: 11.51
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -1.75
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -3.41
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-08-24 20:30:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 266
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 6
  • Number Losing Trades: 308
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -3.61
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.33
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.54
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.33
  • Tail Ratio: 1.60
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 3.93
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 5.59
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.06
  • Serenity Index: 18.74

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators


Standard Monthly Profit

This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
20230.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-18.56%-9.28%26.66%-2.75%5.18%15.03%0.94%
202435.12%-17.34%12.20%71.82%1.44%2.46%14.14%-1.89%-27.04%9.68%-0.59%2.79%
202527.34%••••Login to see results••••Login to see results••••Login to see results••••Login to see results••••Login to see results••••Login to see results••••Login to see results0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

19

Number of Trades

19.45%

Cumulative Returns

57.89%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

13.81%

30 Days

56.64%

60 Days

102.37%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l-5259.02-3.68
Net Profit133063.831330.6427566.91275.67105496.921054.97
Gross Profit476694.764766.95183630.671836.31293064.092930.64
Gross Loss343630.923436.31156063.751560.64187567.171875.67
Commission Paid18775.239186.479588.76
Buy & Hold Return-5851.09-58.51
Max Equity Run-up146926.4895.96
Max Drawdown28146.5852.0
Max Contracts Held1052208.0984822.01052208.0
Total Closed Trades561.0273.0288.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades259.0127.0132.0
Number Losing Trades302.0146.0156.0
Percent Profitable46.1746.5245.83
Avg P&l237.190.48100.980.09366.310.86
Avg Winning Trade1840.524.051445.913.12220.184.96
Avg Losing Trade1137.852.571068.932.531202.352.61
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.6181.3531.847
Largest Winning Trade19940.6911838.819940.69
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.317.028.31
Largest Losing Trade12627.2312627.2311474.66
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.983.963.98
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.015.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.358
Sortino Ratio1.921
Profit Factor1.3871.1771.562
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit130695.121306.9565759.06657.5964936.05649.36
Gross Profit530631.135306.31237567.042375.67293064.092930.64
Gross Loss399936.013999.36171807.971718.08228128.042281.28
Commission Paid21453.9610969.9410484.03
Buy & Hold Return-3864.51-38.65
Max Equity Run-up173047.9396.55
Max Drawdown28146.5852.0
Max Contracts Held1052208.0984822.01052208.0
Total Closed Trades574.0282.0292.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades266.0134.0132.0
Number Losing Trades308.0148.0160.0
Percent Profitable46.3447.5245.21
Avg P&l227.690.48233.190.15222.380.81
Avg Winning Trade1994.854.031772.893.122220.184.96
Avg Losing Trade1298.492.581160.862.541425.82.62
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5361.5271.557
Largest Winning Trade19940.6912169.019940.69
Largest Winning Trade Percent8.317.028.31
Largest Losing Trade15824.1912627.2315824.19
Largest Losing Trade Percent3.983.963.98
Avg # Bars In Trades22.015.028.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades24.015.033.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades20.014.025.0
Sharpe Ratio0.36
Sortino Ratio1.932
Profit Factor1.3271.3831.285
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

TradingView Screenshots

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return (CAGR %) 48.17%
Sharpe Ratio 0.364
Profit Factor 1.345
Maximum Drawdown 52%
Volatility (Annualized) 26.19%
Percent Profitable 46.42%

The strategy demonstrates a solid cumulative annual growth rate of 48.17%. The Profit Factor of 1.345 suggests that for every dollar lost, approximately $1.345 is gained, indicating a profitable strategy. However, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.364 is below the benchmark of 0.5 for cryptocurrency markets, pointing to an area for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. Furthermore, the maximum drawdown of 52% is higher than the desired threshold, which suggests potential risks during market downturns.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, the strategy demonstrates promise but exhibits notable risks that need addressing for real-world trading. It shows resilience with a commendable CAGR and moderate volatility, but the high drawdown and lower Sharpe Ratio suggest attention is needed in managing risk and enhancing returns. Notably, the strategy manages a balanced ratio of win-loss trades, positioning it as a contender in volatile markets if risks are properly managed. The strategy seems promising under certain market conditions but needs tuning to thrive consistently.

Risk Management

The strategy's performance indicates opportunities for better risk management, particularly with drawdowns and volatility. Currently, the risk of large drawdowns is a concern. Improvements in risk management could include:

  • Reducing leverage to mitigate exposure and enhance drawdown recovery.
  • Incorporating diverse stop-loss strategies to cap potential losses.
  • Adopting a risk-positioning framework to adapt to different market volatilities dynamically.

Improvement Suggestions

To enhance the strategy's robustness and performance, I recommend:

  • Optimizing the strategy's parameters to improve its risk-adjusted returns.
  • Exploring additional technical indicators that can refine entry and exit points.
  • Conducting comprehensive out-of-sample testing to affirm the strategy's effectiveness in diverse market conditions.
  • Adjusting leverage and position sizing to decrease the maximum drawdown while maintaining profitability.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy shows potential with its impressive growth rate and profitability, though it is hindered by relatively high drawdown and a lower Sharpe Ratio. With a refined approach to risk management and strategic enhancements, it can become a robust trading option. Ensuring these improvements can facilitate navigating market volatilities more securely and effectively.

Recommendation: Proceed with further testing and incorporate suggested enhancements to bolster the strategy's performance and resilience. Ensure a robust risk management framework to manage inherent market volatilities confidently.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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