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ttoastyy mcginley avaxusdt 45m 29.07.2025

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45 minutes @ttoastyy
● Live

McGinley Trend Followers by @DaviddTech [b95e3343]

🛡️ MCGINLEY AVAXUSDT 45M 29.07.2025

Trading Pair
AVAX
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0
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Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +31.54% Updated 10 hours ago
Total Return Primary
-72.94%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
36.08%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
93.5%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
0.906
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
-1.97%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
546
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Nov 16, 2021
1,482
Days
546
Trades
Last Trade
Dec 6, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2021-11-16 00:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: -0.02
  • Sortino Ratio: -0.02
  • Calmar: 0.25
  • Longest DD Days: 519.00
  • Volatility: 108.84
  • Skew: 0.71
  • Kurtosis: 1.22
  • Expected Daily: 0.05
  • Expected Monthly: 0.96
  • Expected Yearly: 12.10
  • Kelly Criterion: -3.68
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -7.60
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -10.39
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-12-06 19:30:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 5
  • Number Winning Trades 197
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 15
  • Number Losing Trades: 349
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: 0.25
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 0.91
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.60
  • Common Sense Ratio: 0.91
  • Tail Ratio: 1.55
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.09
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 5.03
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.80
  • Serenity Index: -0.16

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+10.18%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+9.22%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+2.79%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+31.54%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+31.54%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+46.19%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+33.97%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+20.79%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
36.2%
Total Trades
547
Cumulative
-65.20%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
27.98%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2021
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+15.85%
+17.63%
Simple P&L
+24.59%
+23.60%
Simple P&L
2022
+16.56%
+15.15%
Simple P&L
-56.73%
-35.05%
Simple P&L
-34.37%
-46.95%
Simple P&L
-0.44%
+1.25%
Simple P&L
-12.59%
-2.40%
Simple P&L
+0.67%
+4.94%
Simple P&L
-3.00%
-5.78%
Simple P&L
+22.42%
+36.65%
Simple P&L
-18.15%
-35.95%
Simple P&L
+8.70%
+28.66%
Simple P&L
-13.14%
-27.19%
Simple P&L
+2.56%
+3.10%
Simple P&L
2023
+3.12%
+13.35%
Simple P&L
-6.43%
-13.01%
Simple P&L
-8.36%
-19.94%
Simple P&L
-4.31%
-19.21%
Simple P&L
+1.28%
+11.38%
Simple P&L
-9.05%
-32.10%
Simple P&L
+0.89%
+0.76%
Simple P&L
+3.24%
+16.85%
Simple P&L
-2.28%
-8.12%
Simple P&L
+4.11%
+16.55%
Simple P&L
+3.57%
+15.62%
Simple P&L
+3.49%
-0.34%
Simple P&L
2024
-1.10%
+13.14%
Simple P&L
-4.48%
-12.85%
Simple P&L
-10.69%
-44.45%
Simple P&L
-3.15%
-1.67%
Simple P&L
+0.86%
+1.70%
Simple P&L
+0.16%
+6.16%
Simple P&L
-2.90%
-20.33%
Simple P&L
+0.57%
+1.60%
Simple P&L
-0.64%
+1.42%
Simple P&L
+0.18%
+4.93%
Simple P&L
+5.65%
+22.54%
Simple P&L
+4.10%
+40.99%
Simple P&L
2025
-3.27%
-17.52%
Simple P&L
+0.88%
+18.64%
Simple P&L
+2.94%
+8.76%
Simple P&L
+3.29%
+13.79%
Simple P&L
+2.47%
+6.60%
Simple P&L
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Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

547

Number of Trades

-65.2%

Cumulative Returns

36.2%

Win Rate

2025-07-29

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

31.54%

30 Days

33.97%

60 Days

46.19%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit-63227.62-63.23-60249.15-60.25-2978.46-2.98
Gross Profit685417.79685.42276046.02276.05409371.77409.37
Gross Loss748645.4748.65336295.17336.3412350.23412.35
Commission Paid22600.3610745.0211855.34
Buy & Hold Return-74676.27-74.68
Max Contracts Held46434212.04643.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration73 days
Avg Equity Run-up39844.7139.84
Max Equity Run-up141212.6469.07
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration244 days
Avg Equity Drawdown62569.7862.57
Max Drawdown185754.5193.5
Total Closed Trades514.0250.0264.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades188.081.0107.0
Number Losing Trades326.0169.0157.0
Percent Profitable36.5832.440.53
Avg P&l-123.010.05-241.0-0.1-11.280.19
Avg Winning Trade3645.848.113407.988.433825.97.88
Avg Losing Trade2296.464.611989.914.192626.435.06
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.5881.7131.457
Largest Winning Trade23047.8823047.8822470.04
Largest Winning Trade Percent35.0417.535.04
Largest Losing Trade25189.9910133.0125189.99
Largest Losing Trade Percent28.568.6928.56
Avg # Bars In Trades50.042.057.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades60.048.070.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades43.039.048.0
Sharpe Ratio-0.023
Sortino Ratio-0.031
Profit Factor0.9160.8210.993
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l7761.1128.68
Net Profit-72937.96-72.94-61721.91-61.72-11216.05-11.22
Gross Profit701518.07701.52288469.95288.47413048.12413.05
Gross Loss774456.03774.46350191.86350.19424264.17424.26
Commission Paid23542.0511292.0412250.01
Buy & Hold Return-86052.85-86.05
Max Contracts Held46434212.04643.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration88 days
Avg Equity Run-up37905.137.91
Max Equity Run-up141212.6469.07
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration244 days
Avg Equity Drawdown62569.7862.57
Max Drawdown185754.5193.5
Total Closed Trades546.0269.0277.0
Total Open Trades1.00.01.0
Number Winning Trades197.088.0109.0
Number Losing Trades349.0181.0168.0
Percent Profitable36.0832.7139.35
Avg P&l-133.59-0.01-229.45-0.1-40.490.08
Avg Winning Trade3561.018.043278.078.273789.437.86
Avg Losing Trade2219.074.551934.764.172525.384.96
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.6051.6941.501
Largest Winning Trade23047.8823047.8822470.04
Largest Winning Trade Percent35.0417.535.04
Largest Losing Trade25189.9910133.0125189.99
Largest Losing Trade Percent28.568.6928.56
Avg # Bars In Trades49.042.057.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades59.047.069.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades44.039.049.0
Sharpe Ratio-0.017
Sortino Ratio-0.023
Profit Factor0.9060.8240.974
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

TradingView Screenshots

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

After reviewing the supplied QuantStats report, several performance metrics warrant detailed consideration:

Metric Value
Net Profit -72.94%
Sharpe Ratio -0.016
Profit Factor 0.906
Maximum Drawdown 93.5%
Annualized Volatility 108.87%
Percent Profitable 36.08%

The strategy, unfortunately, illustrates a negative net profit of -72.94% and a Sharpe Ratio of -0.016, indicating a lack of risk-adjusted returns. The Profit Factor of 0.906 suggests the strategy's losses overshadow its gains. The Maximum Drawdown is notably high at 93.5%, which is above acceptable levels even in crypto trading, underscoring substantial exposure to risk.

Strategy Viability

Presently, the strategy does not seem viable for real-world trading. While this approach might have niche applications or could be adapted for certain market conditions, the current metrics do not support its sustainability without significant modification. The high Maximum Drawdown and negative returns suggest that further optimization or a redevelopment of the core tactics is necessary.

Risk Management

The strategy's risk management appears inadequate, as evidenced by the high Maximum Drawdown and considerable volatility. Potential improvements in risk management include:

  • Reducing leverage to lower the drawdown and overall risk.
  • Incorporating stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms to better manage unpredictable market movements.
  • Enhancing diversification of trading instruments to spread risks.

Improvement Suggestions

To boost the strategy's effectiveness and reliability, consider the following recommendations:

  • Reassess and optimize the strategy parameters to improve profitability and manage risk better.
  • Integrate more robust technical indicators or machine learning techniques for improved trade decision-making.
  • Conduct thorough sensitivity analysis to refine strategy resilience under varying market conditions.
  • Engage in extensive back-testing and real-time forward testing to ensure the strategy's robustness against diverse market scenarios.

Final Opinion

In conclusion, while the strategy is currently not performing optimally, there is potential for improvement through comprehensive evaluation and rigorous testing. The need to manage risks by reducing leverage, among other strategies, is critical.

Recommendation: Implement suggested improvements and conduct further research and testing. Adjustments to the strategy are crucial before considering real-world application, especially focusing on risk management and optimizing returns.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
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Win
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Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
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Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
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Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
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Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

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