TRENDHOO BTC 2H - @MarcoB
⚪️ Deep Backtest
Last updated: 2 hours agoTrades per Day
Key Performance Metrics
- First Traded Date: 2020-04-30 00:00:00
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.54
- Sortino Ratio: 1.68
- Calmar: -3.65
- Longest DD Days: 23.00
- Volatility: 106.68
- Skew: 0.58
- Kurtosis: 1,083.14
- Expected Daily: 2.42
- Expected Monthly: 65.19
- Expected Yearly: 41,185.13
- Kelly Criterion: 17.15
- Risk of Ruin: 153.45
- Daily Value-at-Risk: -4.01
- Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -4.05
- Last Trade Date: 2024-09-04 22:00:00
- Max Consecutive Wins: 4
- Number Winning Trades 58
- Max Consecutive Losses: 10
- Number Losing Trades: 89
- Gain/Pain Ratio: -3.65
- Gain/Pain (1M): 1.77
- Payoff Ratio: 2.71
- Common Sense Ratio: 1.77
- Tail Ratio: 3.00
- Outlier Win Ratio: 0.00
- Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
- Recovery Factor: 86.46
- Ulcer Index: 0.76
- Serenity Index: 91.49
AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst
Performance Analysis
Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:
Metric | Value |
---|---|
Net Profit | 2928.84 |
Gross Profit | 5990.76 |
Gross Loss | 3061.92 |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.578 |
Sortino Ratio | 1.969 |
Maximum Drawdown | 22.38% |
Volatility | 107.24% |
Annualized Return | 59093.99% |
The strategy demonstrates a noteworthy net profit of 2928.84 and an extraordinary annualized return of 59093.99%. The Sharpe and Sortino ratios of 0.578 and 1.969, respectively, show moderate risk-adjusted returns. However, the maximum drawdown of 22.38% and high volatility (107.24%) suggest potential periods of significant drawdowns, but the high potential reward may justify these risks.
Strategy Viability
Based on the data provided, this strategy appears to have substantial potential for real-world trading, especially when market conditions favor high volatility. While the Sharpe ratio may seem relatively low, the high payoff ratio (2.875) and impressive annualized return indicate that the strategy can yield considerable returns. However, it is crucial to consider whether such volatile market conditions will persist and if the strategy can adapt to less favorable environments.
Risk Management
The strategy's risk management practices need further refinement. While the gain-pain ratio (1.962) and tail ratio (2.999) suggest some efficacy, the high volatility and notable drawdown require better risk control measures. Recommendations for improvement include:
- Implementing dynamic position sizing to adjust exposure based on market conditions.
- Using more sophisticated stop-loss mechanisms to better manage downside risk.
- Diversifying the trading portfolio to spread risk across multiple assets.
Improvement Suggestions
To further enhance the strategy's performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:
- Optimize strategy parameters to maintain high returns while reducing drawdowns.
- Introduce a broader range of technical indicators to improve trade decision accuracy.
- Conduct out-of-sample testing and forward-testing to validate the strategy's resilience in different market conditions.
- Enhance the risk management framework, incorporating advanced techniques such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) adjustments and stress testing.
Final Opinion
In summary, the strategy exhibits strong performance with high returns and decent risk-adjusted metrics. However, the high volatility and significant drawdowns indicate the need for better risk management. By optimizing parameters and incorporating additional risk controls, the strategy could potentially become more robust and viable across varying market conditions.
Recommendation: Proceed with further testing and optimization of the strategy. Focus on improving risk management to handle higher market volatility effectively while sustaining impressive returns.