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traderdev ergo-flex arbusdt 15m 17.06.2025

  • Homepage
15 minutes @traderdev
● Live

Ergo-Flex by @DaviddTech 🤖 [a4330abd]

🛡️ ERGO-FLEX ARBUSDT 15M 17.06.2025

Trading Pair
ARB
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - August 12, 2025
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +4.08% Updated 11 hours ago
Total Return Primary
1136.36%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
49.04%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
91.13%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
1.088
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
231.25%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
881
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
Mar 30, 2023
984
Days
881
Trades
Last Trade
Dec 6, 2025
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2023-03-30 04:15:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.35
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.89
  • Calmar: -1.70
  • Longest DD Days: 529.00
  • Volatility: 132.69
  • Skew: 1.01
  • Kurtosis: 7.56
  • Expected Daily: 0.62
  • Expected Monthly: 13.76
  • Expected Yearly: 369.83
  • Kelly Criterion: 3.96
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -10.21
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -10.70
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-12-06 17:30:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 9
  • Number Winning Trades 432
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 10
  • Number Losing Trades: 449
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -1.70
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.09
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.13
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.09
  • Tail Ratio: 1.11
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 6.17
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 2.65
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.63
  • Serenity Index: 15.61

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+110.13%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+206.61%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
-102.84%
COMPOUNDED
LOSS
Last 60 Days
+576.79%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+318.63%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+4.08%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+20.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+35.21%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+44.35%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+61.39%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
49.0%
Total Trades
881
Cumulative
1,136.36%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
87.24%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+2.83%
+0.94%
Simple P&L
+25.40%
+19.01%
Simple P&L
+73.02%
-3.68%
Simple P&L
+49.77%
+2.59%
Simple P&L
+46.26%
-6.50%
Simple P&L
+51.28%
-2.22%
Simple P&L
+120.86%
+8.11%
Simple P&L
-332.14%
-15.30%
Simple P&L
-61.49%
-19.29%
Simple P&L
-11.85%
-12.66%
Simple P&L
2024
+3.14%
+0.80%
Simple P&L
-30.43%
-8.64%
Simple P&L
-28.68%
-13.73%
Simple P&L
+5.37%
+10.67%
Simple P&L
-1.40%
-0.52%
Simple P&L
+72.56%
+23.60%
Simple P&L
-3.96%
+1.41%
Simple P&L
-37.81%
-8.99%
Simple P&L
+2.51%
-4.65%
Simple P&L
+14.08%
+9.38%
Simple P&L
-7.93%
-19.64%
Simple P&L
-29.55%
-2.22%
Simple P&L
2025
+78.54%
+7.90%
Simple P&L
+23.31%
+19.02%
Simple P&L
+182.59%
+12.41%
Simple P&L
+0.92%
+5.51%
Simple P&L
+353.50%
+19.33%
Simple P&L
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Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

881

Number of Trades

1136.36%

Cumulative Returns

49.04%

Win Rate

2025-06-17

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

20%

30 Days

44.35%

60 Days

35.21%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit990063.98990.06423976.66423.98566087.32566.09
Gross Profit6016257.216016.263217849.63217.852798407.612798.41
Gross Loss5026193.235026.192793872.942793.872232320.282232.32
Commission Paid608565.85333258.93275306.92
Buy & Hold Return-75870.32-75.87
Max Contracts Held1580293415802934.010133984.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration24 days
Avg Equity Run-up136380.99136.38
Max Equity Run-up1038765.1395.29
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration26 days
Avg Equity Drawdown119842.02119.84
Max Drawdown515291.591.13
Total Closed Trades725.0374.0351.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades353.0173.0180.0
Number Losing Trades372.0201.0171.0
Percent Profitable48.6946.2651.28
Avg P&l1365.610.041133.63-0.061612.780.15
Avg Winning Trade17043.222.3718600.292.2815546.712.46
Avg Losing Trade13511.272.1713899.872.0713054.52.29
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.2611.3381.191
Largest Winning Trade98533.9998533.9984957.04
Largest Winning Trade Percent13.666.4213.66
Largest Losing Trade74463.1774463.1748500.01
Largest Losing Trade Percent7.067.064.04
Avg # Bars In Trades21.020.022.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades19.016.022.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades23.023.023.0
Sharpe Ratio0.374
Sortino Ratio0.998
Profit Factor1.1971.1521.254
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit1136356.11136.361572102.371572.1-435746.26-435.75
Gross Profit14036040.7614036.048432210.938432.215603829.835603.83
Gross Loss12899684.6612899.686860108.576860.116039576.096039.58
Commission Paid1387428.85799747.4587681.45
Buy & Hold Return-83959.86-83.96
Max Contracts Held3605182536051825.033946366.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration19 days
Avg Equity Run-up246628.12246.63
Max Equity Run-up3088972.3798.37
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration23 days
Avg Equity Drawdown299938.54299.94
Max Drawdown2380871.0691.13
Total Closed Trades881.0455.0426.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades432.0217.0215.0
Number Losing Trades449.0238.0211.0
Percent Profitable49.0447.6950.47
Avg P&l1289.850.13455.170.07-1022.880.13
Avg Winning Trade32490.842.4438858.112.3726064.322.5
Avg Losing Trade28729.812.1528823.992.0428623.582.27
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.1311.3480.911
Largest Winning Trade263059.36263059.36177303.88
Largest Winning Trade Percent13.666.4213.66
Largest Losing Trade240773.24206987.93240773.24
Largest Losing Trade Percent7.067.064.04
Avg # Bars In Trades21.020.023.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades20.017.022.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades23.023.023.0
Sharpe Ratio0.351
Sortino Ratio0.888
Profit Factor1.0881.2290.928
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

TradingView Screenshots

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:

Metric Strategy
Cumulative Return 1180.63%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 157.07%
Sharpe Ratio 0.353
Profit Factor 1.093
Maximum Drawdown 91.13%
Volatility (Annualized) 132.66%

The strategy displays significantly high returns with a cumulative gain of 1180.63% and an annualized return of 157.07%. However, the Sharpe ratio of 0.353 indicates that the risk-adjusted returns could be improved. The maximum drawdown is notably high at 91.13%, suggesting considerable risk exposure and potential for capital loss during downturns. The volatility is also elevated, requiring careful consideration and management.

Strategy Viability

Based on the data provided, the strategy demonstrates substantial potential in terms of returns, but the elevated drawdown and volatility pose risks that need addressing. While the strategy could be viable in strong bullish market conditions, its sustainability in varied market conditions is questionable without adjustments. Enhancing risk measures and analyzing market reaction patterns will be necessary to determine long-term viability.

Risk Management

The elevated maximum drawdown and volatility suggest potential areas where risk management practices could be enhanced. Recommendations include:

  • Decrease leverage to lower potential drawdowns, thus ensuring a more stable equity curve.
  • Implement tighter stop-loss strategies to limit losses during adverse market movements.
  • Consider diversification of traded assets or hedging techniques to mitigate risk exposure.

Improvement Suggestions

To improve the strategy’s performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize the strategy's parameters to balance return and risk, especially targeting a higher Sharpe ratio.
  • Incorporate a more diverse set of technical indicators to refine entry and exit signals.
  • Conduct extensive out-of-sample testing to confirm robustness across various market regimes.
  • Reassess the risk management protocols, potentially using value-at-risk (VaR) and stress testing techniques for enhanced risk prediction.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy demonstrates strong potential with impressive returns, but key concerns remain around its high volatility and maximum drawdown. Adjustments in risk management, specifically regarding leverage and volatility control, are crucial for ensuring longevity and stability.

Recommendation: Modify the strategy by implementing the suggested risk management improvements and parameter optimizations to enhance its resilience in different market conditions before considering real-world application.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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0.00
Loss
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0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

Live TradingView Chart

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