🚀 McGinley Trend Followers [v5] by @DaviddTech 🤖 [4bf2c230]
🛡️ MCGINLEY BTC 30MIN
@A-Dog
⌛30 minutes
⚪️ Deep Backtest
Last updated: 16 minutes agoTrades per Day
Key Performance Metrics
- First Traded Date: 2020-07-26 10:00:00
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.81
- Sortino Ratio: 3.82
- Calmar: -1.34
- Longest DD Days: 60.00
- Volatility: 12.25
- Skew: -0.21
- Kurtosis: 1.40
- Expected Daily: 0.12
- Expected Monthly: 2.57
- Expected Yearly: 35.55
- Kelly Criterion: 25.76
- Daily Value-at-Risk: -1.59
- Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -1.80
- Last Trade Date: 2024-12-05 15:30:00
- Max Consecutive Wins: 24
- Number Winning Trades 341
- Max Consecutive Losses: 6
- Number Losing Trades: 157
- Gain/Pain Ratio: -1.34
- Gain/Pain (1M): 1.60
- Payoff Ratio: 0.73
- Common Sense Ratio: 1.60
- Tail Ratio: 1.04
- Outlier Win Ratio: 3.89
- Outlier Loss Ratio: 2.92
- Recovery Factor: 0.00
- Ulcer Index: 0.02
- Serenity Index: 9.11
AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst
Performance Analysis
Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:
Metric | Value |
---|---|
CAGR (Annualized Return) | 15% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.835 |
Profit Factor | 1.658 |
Maximum Drawdown | 26.44% |
Volatility (Annualized) | 11.39% |
Percent Profitable | 69.23% |
Gain Pain Ratio | 1.68 |
The strategy demonstrates a Sharpe Ratio of 0.835, indicating good risk-adjusted returns in the context of crypto trading. A maximum drawdown of 26.44% is promising, staying below the acceptable 40% threshold for crypto strategies. The strong profit factor of 1.658 suggests the strategy is profitable, generating 1.658 units of profit for every unit of loss.
Strategy Viability
Based on the data, this strategy appears viable for real-world trading scenarios. The impressive 69.23% win rate highlights its ability to consistently capture profitable opportunities. However, understanding the market conditions where the strategy excels—such as during high volatility or trending markets—could provide insights into its long-term viability. Its resilience against downturns, thanks to a reasonable drawdown, further supports the strategy's robustness.
Risk Management
The current risk management approach effectively maintains a balance of returns and risk exposure, as evidenced by the modest drawdown and absence of margin calls. However, to enhance risk mitigation, consider the following:
- Reduce leverage to decrease max drawdown and improve stability.
- Incorporate dynamic stop-loss levels to adapt to changing market conditions.
- Explore diversification of assets to reduce concentrated exposure risks.
Improvement Suggestions
To further enhance performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:
- Refine strategy parameters, ensuring they are well-tuned across multiple market conditions while maintaining low drawdown.
- Introduce additional technical indicators to enhance entry and exit timing, capitalizing on short-term market inefficiencies.
- Perform rigorous out-of-sample testing to ensure robustness across different market regimes.
- Consider more sophisticated risk management frameworks like VaR and stress testing to ensure preparedness for extreme market conditions.
Final Opinion
Overall, the strategy showcases strong potential with its solid Sharpe Ratio, respectable drawdown level, and high win rate. Nonetheless, there is room for optimization, particularly in enhancing risk management and maximizing profitability. Implementing suggested improvements and validating the strategy across diverse market conditions will be crucial for its sustained success.
Recommendation: Proceed with further testing and refinement of the strategy. Optimize and reinforce the risk management setup to handle the dynamic nature of crypto markets effectively.
Standard Monthly Profit
This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.
Year/Month | January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 4.66% | 15.07% | -13.49% | 3.58% | -6.33% | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results |
2023 | 26.86% | 25.33% | 36.82% | 21.61% | 10.37% | 5.01% | -3.65% | 11.79% | 3.99% | 21.97% | 0.20% | 4.39% |
2022 | 4.05% | 27.26% | 9.15% | 10.62% | -2.84% | 2.73% | 22.51% | 12.45% | 7.93% | 10.48% | -1.73% | 5.97% |
2021 | 20.31% | -0.24% | 0.35% | 12.72% | 9.22% | 3.00% | 14.45% | 5.32% | -2.21% | 4.02% | 7.11% | 7.20% |
2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 7.58% | -0.69% | 4.42% | 14.68% | 15.25% | 27.79% |
Live Trades Stats
BTC
Base Currency
97
Number of Trades
23.33%
Cumulative Returns
61.86%
Win Rate
2024-03-13
🟠 Incubation started
🛡️
7 Days
8.63%
30 Days
15.97%
90 Days
List of Trades
Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Profit | 66,078.15 USD | 6,607.81 | 53,989.08 USD | 5,398.91 | 12,089.06 USD | 1,208.91 |
Gross Profit | 127,039.34 | 12,703.93 | 98,146.99 | 9,814.70 | 28,892.36 | 2,889.24 |
Gross Loss | 60,961.20 | 6,096.12 | 44,157.91 | 4,415.79 | 16,803.29 | 1,680.33 |
Max Run-up | 69,874.13 | 98.59 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 11,317.52 | 18.89 | ||||
Buy & Hold Return | 6,436.69 | 643.67 | ||||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.967 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 10.535 | |||||
Profit Factor | 2.084 | 2.223 | 1.719 | |||
Max Contracts Held | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
Open PL | 0 | 0.00 | ||||
Commission Paid | 9,675.64 | 6,620.49 | 3,055.15 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 401 | 192 | 209 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 281 | 136 | 145 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 120 | 56 | 64 | |||
Percent Profitable | 70.07 | 70.83 | 69.38 | |||
Avg Trade | 164.78 | 0.52 | 281.19 | 0.74 | 57.84 | 0.32 |
Avg Winning Trade | 452.10 | 1.46 | 721.67 | 1.77 | 199.26 | 1.16 |
Avg Losing Trade | 508.01 | 1.66 | 788.53 | 1.75 | 262.55 | 1.59 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 0.89 | 0.915 | 0.759 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 2,857.72 | 5.07 | 2,857.72 | 3.87 | 2,410.12 | 5.07 |
Largest Losing Trade | 3,023.46 | 3.49 | 3,023.46 | 3.49 | 2,411.72 | 2.57 |
Avg # Bars in Trades | 16 | 20 | 12 | |||
Avg # Bars in Winning Trades | 15 | 20 | 10 | |||
Avg # Bars in Losing Trades | 17 | 21 | 14 | |||
Margin Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Profit | 79,557.36 USD | 7,955.74 | 55,627.21 USD | 5,562.72 | 23,930.15 USD | 2,393.02 |
Gross Profit | 227,693.88 | 22,769.39 | 158,842.70 | 15,884.27 | 68,851.18 | 6,885.12 |
Gross Loss | 148,136.51 | 14,813.65 | 103,215.49 | 10,321.55 | 44,921.02 | 4,492.10 |
Max Run-up | 84,937.52 | 98.84 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 18,320.78 | 26.44 | ||||
Buy & Hold Return | 8,857.23 | 885.72 | ||||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.805 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 3.824 | |||||
Profit Factor | 1.537 | 1.539 | 1.533 | |||
Max Contracts Held | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
Open PL | 0 | 0.00 | ||||
Commission Paid | 19,507.22 | 12,130.61 | 7,376.61 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 498 | 233 | 265 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 341 | 156 | 185 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 157 | 77 | 80 | |||
Percent Profitable | 68.47 | 66.95 | 69.81 | |||
Avg Trade | 159.75 | 0.45 | 238.74 | 0.61 | 90.30 | 0.32 |
Avg Winning Trade | 667.72 | 1.43 | 1,018.22 | 1.77 | 372.17 | 1.15 |
Avg Losing Trade | 943.54 | 1.67 | 1,340.46 | 1.74 | 561.51 | 1.60 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 0.708 | 0.76 | 0.663 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 3,890.47 | 5.07 | 3,890.47 | 3.87 | 2,770.75 | 5.07 |
Largest Losing Trade | 4,028.74 | 3.49 | 4,028.74 | 3.49 | 3,458.55 | 2.57 |
Avg # Bars in Trades | 17 | 23 | 12 | |||
Avg # Bars in Winning Trades | 16 | 22 | 11 | |||
Avg # Bars in Losing Trades | 19 | 24 | 14 | |||
Margin Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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