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McGinley BTC 1H

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🚀 McGinley Trend Followers [v5] by @DaviddTech 🤖 [898e7e54]

🛡️ MCGINLEY BTC 1H @

TREND FOLOWING
1 hour

by will1310 - April 24, 2024
0
ℹ️ All backtest include trading fees.


⚪️ Deep Backtest

Last updated: 57 minutes ago

194.04%

Net Profit

49.72%

Win Rate

535

Total Closed Trades

1.181

Profit Factor

🛡️ %

Max Drawdown

-86.71% 😔

Incubation Delta

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2020-04-10 23:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.26
  • Sortino Ratio: 0.59
  • Calmar: -0.86
  • Longest DD Days: 137.00
  • Volatility: 35.76
  • Skew: 0.21
  • Kurtosis: -0.37
  • Expected Daily: 0.22
  • Expected Monthly: 4.82
  • Expected Yearly: 76.01
  • Kelly Criterion: 7.61
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -3.02
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -3.92
  • Last Trade Date: 2025-05-19 15:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 8
  • Number Winning Trades 266
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 8
  • Number Losing Trades: 269
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.86
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 1.18
  • Payoff Ratio: 1.19
  • Common Sense Ratio: 1.18
  • Tail Ratio: 1.31
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 2.42
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 3.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.13
  • Serenity Index: 4.77

AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst

Typing...

Performance Analysis

Upon reviewing the QuantStats report, several performance metrics provide insights into the strategy's effectiveness:

Metric Value
Cumulative Net Profit 198.82%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 24.48%
Sharpe Ratio 0.27
Profit Factor 1.186
Maximum Drawdown 27.63%
Volatility (Annualized) 35.77%
Percent Profitable 49.81%

The strategy achieves a cumulative return of 198.82% with an annualized return of 24.48%. While returns are positive, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.27 indicates room for improvement in risk-adjusted returns. The maximum drawdown of 27.63% is within acceptable limits, but can potentially be improved to decrease downside risk.

Strategy Viability

The strategy shows potential for real-world trading, particularly due to its positive net profit and manageable drawdown. However, the Sharpe Ratio suggests a need to enhance risk management to improve attractiveness. It is crucial to examine if the market conditions align with the strategy's strengths and to ensure these conditions are likely to persist.

Risk Management

While the strategy contains foundational risk management elements, there is notable room for growth:

  • Consider adjusting leverage to further reduce drawdowns and risk exposure.
  • Investigate incorporating stop-loss and take-profit levels more effectively to protect against substantial losses.
  • Evaluate position sizing strategies to ensure alignment with the strategy's risk tolerance.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy’s effectiveness, consider the following recommendations:

  • Optimize leverage and other parameters to mitigate drawdown while maintaining strong returns.
  • Explore additional technical indicators that could sharpen entry and exit signals.
  • Conduct in-depth backtesting across diverse market conditions to test the strategy's robustness and adaptability.
  • Integrate a diversified portfolio approach to reduce unsystematic risk.

Final Opinion

In summary, the strategy offers a promising starting point with a positive net profit and acceptable drawdown. Nevertheless, enhancing risk-adjusted returns through improved risk management and further testing is essential.

Recommendation: Proceed with refining and optimizing the strategy. Implement suggested improvements, and conduct additional testing to ensure its adaptability and robustness in various market environments.

AI Quant, can you analyze this strategy?

Standard Monthly Profit

This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
20200.00%0.00%0.00%-0.66%-6.59%-0.37%0.00%-1.51%-3.94%0.00%7.81%2.39%
202116.93%5.35%-1.34%1.21%10.08%10.83%-8.54%-4.06%7.21%-6.57%7.09%5.71%
202218.04%9.71%1.67%5.23%13.81%12.98%-0.33%11.53%3.23%-2.37%21.67%0.02%
20230.00%0.15%0.59%7.43%-3.93%2.53%0.10%1.75%1.24%0.00%-1.40%-1.64%
20242.01%-1.52%2.82%-13.47%-6.06%-4.52%2.56%5.93%-6.81%4.98%Login to see resultsLogin to see results
2025Login to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see resultsLogin to see results0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Live Trades Stats

BTC

Base Currency

132

Number of Trades

-23.49%

Cumulative Returns

42.42%

Win Rate

2024-04-10

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

-1.6%

30 Days

-13.06%

60 Days

-1.44%

90 Days

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit280754.39280.750.00.0280754.39280.75
Gross Profit946733.16946.730.00.0946733.16946.73
Gross Loss665978.76665.980.00.0665978.76665.98
Commission Paid81411.160.081411.16
Buy & Hold Return900085.28900.09
Max Equity Run-up322111.6279.03
Max Drawdown43074.5521.44
Max Contracts Held35.00.035.0
Total Closed Trades403.00.0403.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades210.00.0210.0
Number Losing Trades193.00.0193.0
Percent Profitable52.1152.11
Avg P&l696.660.24696.660.24
Avg Winning Trade4508.251.824508.251.82
Avg Losing Trade3450.671.483450.671.48
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.3061.306
Largest Winning Trade18565.3618565.36
Largest Winning Trade Percent5.485.48
Largest Losing Trade19394.8819394.88
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.524.52
Avg # Bars In Trades7.00.07.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades7.00.07.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades7.00.07.0
Sharpe Ratio0.41
Sortino Ratio1.257
Profit Factor1.4221.422
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Open P&l0.00.0
Net Profit194044.19194.040.00.0194044.19194.04
Gross Profit1265695.521265.70.00.01265695.521265.7
Gross Loss1071651.331071.650.00.01071651.331071.65
Commission Paid125511.670.0125511.67
Buy & Hold Return1427692.931427.69
Max Equity Run-up322111.6279.03
Max Drawdown113681.4827.91
Max Contracts Held35.00.035.0
Total Closed Trades535.00.0535.0
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Number Winning Trades266.00.0266.0
Number Losing Trades269.00.0269.0
Percent Profitable49.7249.72
Avg P&l362.70.14362.70.14
Avg Winning Trade4758.251.724758.251.72
Avg Losing Trade3983.831.413983.831.41
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss1.1941.194
Largest Winning Trade18565.3618565.36
Largest Winning Trade Percent5.485.48
Largest Losing Trade19394.8819394.88
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.524.52
Avg # Bars In Trades7.00.07.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades6.00.06.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades7.00.07.0
Sharpe Ratio0.263
Sortino Ratio0.588
Profit Factor1.1811.181
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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© All rights reserved DaviddTech 2024.
Disclaimer: The performance outcomes presented on davidd.tech are theoretical and subject to many limitations. It should not be assumed that any accounts will or can replicate the profits or losses similar to those depicted. Theoretical performance is often created looking back, which does not account for all the variables that can impact trading outcomes. Various market dynamics or the execution of specific trading strategies may introduce discrepancies that are not reflected in these theoretical results, potentially influencing actual trading negatively. Historical success does not guarantee future returns. Market conditions evolve, suggesting that the effectiveness of these strategies may diminish over time, necessitating new approaches. Additionally, performance can vary significantly among different brokers, and there is no expectation for backtested results to align precisely with actual market performance.
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