🚀 SuperCycle Surge Strategy by @DaviddTech 🤖 [108a56b3]
🛡️ SUPER.CYCLE.SURGE BTC 30M
@Igorek
⌛30 minutes
⚪️ Deep Backtest
Last updated: 24 minutes agoTrades per Day
Key Performance Metrics
- First Traded Date: 2020-04-10 05:00:00
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.52
- Sortino Ratio: 1.50
- Calmar: -0.84
- Longest DD Days: 116.00
- Volatility: 1.12
- Skew: 3.87
- Kurtosis: 24.78
- Expected Daily: 0.01
- Expected Monthly: 0.14
- Expected Yearly: 1.65
- Kelly Criterion: 20.59
- Daily Value-at-Risk: -0.07
- Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -0.10
- Last Trade Date: 2024-12-09 11:00:00
- Max Consecutive Wins: 10
- Number Winning Trades 415
- Max Consecutive Losses: 5
- Number Losing Trades: 257
- Gain/Pain Ratio: -0.84
- Gain/Pain (1M): 1.50
- Payoff Ratio: 0.92
- Common Sense Ratio: 1.50
- Tail Ratio: 1.64
- Outlier Win Ratio: 8.16
- Outlier Loss Ratio: 4.73
- Recovery Factor: 0.00
- Ulcer Index: 0.00
- Serenity Index: 3.34
AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst
Performance Analysis
Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:
Metric | Value |
---|---|
Net Profit | 482.14% |
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) | 1.04% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.566 |
Sortino Ratio | 1.689 |
Profit Factor | 1.576 |
Maximum Drawdown | -15.24% |
Volatility (Annualized) | 1.12 |
Percent Profitable | 62.23% |
The strategy demonstrates a net profit of 482.14%, suggesting attractive growth potential in percentage terms. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.566 is above the threshold of 0.5, indicating adequate risk-adjusted returns. A Profit Factor of over 1.5 indicates that the strategy earns $1.58 for every $1 lost, reflecting commendable profitability. The maximum drawdown of -15.24% is well within acceptable limits, highlighting effective drawdown control, which is a strong indicator of risk management efficiency.
Strategy Viability
The data suggests that the strategy is viable for real-world trading. The strong performance in terms of profitability, coupled with a sustainable risk profile indicated by the manageable drawdown, aligns well with typical market conditions. However, the CAGR of 1.04% indicates that while profitable, the growth over time is modest. Monitoring the conditions under which the strategy excels and understanding if these are likely to continue is important.
Risk Management
Risk management appears adequate given the low drawdown and lack of margin calls during the evaluation period. However, there is always room for improvement to further stabilize returns:
- Consider reducing leverage to liberate more capital and potentially decrease drawdowns further.
- Re-evaluate stop-loss levels to optimize for reduced loss frequency and severity.
- Incorporate diversification to spread risk across multiple strategies or assets.
Improvement Suggestions
To enhance the strategy's robustness and potential returns, consider the following:
- Optimize trade execution and timing using advanced technical indicators or machine learning techniques to improve win consistency.
- Conduct rigorous stress tests under varied market scenarios to ensure robustness.
- Explore enhancing the existing risk management strategy by incorporating additional hedging mechanisms or dynamic position sizing.
Final Opinion
The strategy demonstrates a balanced risk-reward profile with favorable profitability metrics and acceptable drawdowns. While the CAGR could be improved, the strategy's overall consistency makes it a good candidate for further refinement and testing.
Recommendation: Proceed with continued refinement and further optimization of the strategy to exploit potential efficiency gains and bolster overall performance. Consider testing under broader market conditions to validate its effectiveness across different environments.
Standard Monthly Profit
This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.
Year/Month | January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | -1.37% | 3.75% | 1.17% | -2.34% | -7.45% | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results | Login to see results |
2023 | 10.69% | -0.99% | 13.03% | 1.12% | -2.38% | 2.88% | -1.42% | 1.50% | -1.97% | 12.04% | -3.71% | 0.17% |
2022 | 5.49% | 7.56% | 7.43% | 0.11% | 12.97% | 5.02% | 2.68% | -3.21% | -6.58% | 0.11% | -1.25% | -2.95% |
2021 | 12.56% | 4.32% | 6.05% | 6.59% | 14.47% | -1.45% | 10.67% | 2.21% | 5.33% | 10.75% | 6.02% | 3.50% |
2020 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.74% | 0.26% | 1.84% | 0.27% | 12.30% | 7.59% | 0.33% | 4.02% | 10.86% |
Live Trades Stats
BTC
Base Currency
123
Number of Trades
-9.38%
Cumulative Returns
61.79%
Win Rate
2024-02-06
🟠 Incubation started
🛡️
7 Days
-1.65%
30 Days
-4.42%
90 Days
List of Trades
Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Profit | 5,040.62 USD | 504.06 | 2,997.16 USD | 299.72 | 2,043.46 USD | 204.35 |
Gross Profit | 11,238.52 | 1,123.85 | 7,295.33 | 729.53 | 3,943.18 | 394.32 |
Gross Loss | 6,197.90 | 619.79 | 4,298.17 | 429.82 | 1,899.73 | 189.97 |
Max Run-up | 5,656.26 | 84.98 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 818.13 | 15.24 | ||||
Buy & Hold Return | 5,077.45 | 507.74 | ||||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.682 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 2.629 | |||||
Profit Factor | 1.813 | 1.697 | 2.076 | |||
Max Contracts Held | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Open PL | 0 | 0.00 | ||||
Commission Paid | 598.30 | 418.21 | 180.10 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 549 | 376 | 173 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 339 | 227 | 112 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 210 | 149 | 61 | |||
Percent Profitable | 61.75 | 60.37 | 64.74 | |||
Avg Trade | 9.18 | 0.74 | 7.97 | 0.70 | 11.81 | 0.84 |
Avg Winning Trade | 33.15 | 2.19 | 32.14 | 2.17 | 35.21 | 2.22 |
Avg Losing Trade | 29.51 | 1.59 | 28.85 | 1.55 | 31.14 | 1.68 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 1.123 | 1.114 | 1.13 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 672.52 | 25.00 | 605.79 | 21.43 | 672.52 | 25.00 |
Largest Losing Trade | 174.03 | 4.37 | 174.03 | 4.37 | 149.98 | 4.00 |
Avg # Bars in Trades | 55 | 50 | 66 | |||
Avg # Bars in Winning Trades | 65 | 61 | 72 | |||
Avg # Bars in Losing Trades | 40 | 34 | 56 | |||
Margin Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Profit | 4,450.91 USD | 445.09 | 2,800.98 USD | 280.10 | 1,649.93 USD | 164.99 |
Gross Profit | 13,396.46 | 1,339.65 | 8,931.36 | 893.14 | 4,465.10 | 446.51 |
Gross Loss | 8,945.56 | 894.56 | 6,130.38 | 613.04 | 2,815.17 | 281.52 |
Max Run-up | 5,784.45 | 85.27 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 1,198.40 | 18.07 | ||||
Buy & Hold Return | 12,729.84 | 1,272.98 | ||||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.521 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 1.499 | |||||
Profit Factor | 1.498 | 1.457 | 1.586 | |||
Max Contracts Held | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Open PL | 0 | 0.00 | ||||
Commission Paid | 806.93 | 557.70 | 249.23 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 672 | 462 | 210 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 415 | 280 | 135 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 257 | 182 | 75 | |||
Percent Profitable | 61.76 | 60.61 | 64.29 | |||
Avg Trade | 6.62 | 0.67 | 6.06 | 0.66 | 7.86 | 0.68 |
Avg Winning Trade | 32.28 | 2.07 | 31.90 | 2.10 | 33.07 | 2.01 |
Avg Losing Trade | 34.81 | 1.60 | 33.68 | 1.55 | 37.54 | 1.72 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 0.927 | 0.947 | 0.881 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 672.52 | 25.00 | 605.79 | 21.43 | 672.52 | 25.00 |
Largest Losing Trade | 180.94 | 4.37 | 180.94 | 4.37 | 157.67 | 4.00 |
Avg # Bars in Trades | 57 | 51 | 69 | |||
Avg # Bars in Winning Trades | 66 | 61 | 75 | |||
Avg # Bars in Losing Trades | 43 | 37 | 58 | |||
Margin Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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