StiffTrend by @DaviddTech 🤖 [cba9cd88]
🛡️ KIFSCRYPTO STIFFTREND BTCUSDT 30M 14.05
@kifscrypto
⌛30 minutes
⚪️ Deep Backtest
Last updated: 27 minutes agoTrades per Day
Key Performance Metrics
- First Traded Date: 2018-11-19 11:30:00
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.34
- Sortino Ratio: 0.77
- Calmar: 0.37
- Longest DD Days: 54.00
- Volatility: 36.92
- Skew: -9.81
- Kurtosis: 119.20
- Expected Daily: 0.01
- Expected Monthly: 0.16
- Expected Yearly: 1.99
- Kelly Criterion: 28.03
- Daily Value-at-Risk: -1.98
- Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -5.81
- Last Trade Date: 2020-06-02 17:30:00
- Max Consecutive Wins: 21
- Number Winning Trades 154
- Max Consecutive Losses: 3
- Number Losing Trades: 42
- Gain/Pain Ratio: 0.37
- Gain/Pain (1M): 1.55
- Payoff Ratio: 0.41
- Common Sense Ratio: 1.55
- Tail Ratio: 0.79
- Outlier Win Ratio: 0.00
- Outlier Loss Ratio: 8.23
- Recovery Factor: 0.00
- Ulcer Index: 0.04
- Serenity Index: -0.34
AI Trading Bot Quantitative Analyst
Performance Analysis
Upon reviewing the provided QuantStats report, several performance metrics stand out that merit attention:
Metric | Strategy |
---|---|
Net Profit | -305.9% |
Sharpe Ratio | 0.335 |
Profit Factor | 0.956 |
Maximum Drawdown | 108.75% |
Volatility (Annualized) | 36.92% |
Annualized Return (CAGR %) | -3.01% |
Percent Profitable | 78.57% |
The strategy currently shows some challenges, with a net loss and an unacceptable drawdown of 108.75%. Although the win rate of 78.57% is quite favorable, it hasn't translated into overall profitability due to other factors. The Sharpe Ratio is below the ideal threshold in this context of crypto trading. The Profit Factor indicates more losses than gains.
Strategy Viability
At present, the viability of this strategy for real-world trading is questionable given the negative annualized return and the significant drawdown. While the strategy exhibits a high percentage of winning trades, the losses from fewer losing trades are significant. This imbalance suggests a need for adjustment. It may require a review to determine suitable market conditions where it might perform better.
Risk Management
The high maximum drawdown suggests an area needing significant attention with risk management. The position sizing and leverage used could potentially be adjusted to mitigate risk exposure. Additionally, integrating robust stop-loss mechanisms could help prevent substantial losses from individual trades.
- Consider utilizing less leverage to directly reduce the drawdown impact.
- Introduce stricter risk controls with defined maximum allowable losses per trade.
- Employ volatility-based position sizing to better align with market conditions.
Improvement Suggestions
To enhance performance and robustness, consider the following recommendations:
- Re-calibrate strategy parameters with a focus on minimizing drawdown and improving profitability.
- Explore additional technical indicators that might offer better signals for entry and exit.
- Conduct comprehensive backtesting including different market scenarios to find optimal conditions.
- Evaluate the use of a diversified asset basket to spread risk exposure.
Final Opinion
Despite a high win rate, the strategy's performance in terms of net profit and drawdown requires significant refinement to improve its viability. The risk management framework particularly must be strengthened.
Recommendation: Major modifications and testing are necessary before considering real-world application. Focus on optimizing trade size and leverage to better manage drawdowns, hence turning high winning trades into profitable outcomes.
Standard Monthly Profit
This shows the total profits or losses of the strategy after closing a trade and the percentage gain or loss of the strategy over time.
Year/Month | January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 64.46% | 3.06% |
2019 | 0.00% | 33.12% | -3.27% | 36.16% | -36.16% | 71.53% | 0.00% | 108.21% | -12.00% | 34.57% | -4.37% | -9.92% |
2020 | 28.58% | 5.78% | -4.09% | 106.01% | 12.28% | -108.75% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Live Trades Stats
BTC
Base Currency
0
Number of Trades
0%
Cumulative Returns
0%
Win Rate
2024-05-14
🟠 Incubation started
🛡️
7 Days
0%
30 Days
0%
60 Days
0%
90 Days
List of Trades
Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Open P&l | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Net Profit | -4588.57 | -305.9 | -13701.86 | -913.46 | 9113.29 | 607.55 |
Gross Profit | 99048.33 | 6603.22 | 70212.15 | 4680.81 | 28836.18 | 1922.41 |
Gross Loss | 103636.9 | 6909.13 | 83914.01 | 5594.27 | 19722.89 | 1314.86 |
Commission Paid | 7746.63 | 5467.51 | 2279.11 | |||
Buy & Hold Return | 16398.33 | 1093.22 | ||||
Max Equity Run-up | 36179.36 | 96.04 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 38381.08 | 108.75 | ||||
Max Contracts Held | 42.0 | 42.0 | 40.0 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 196.0 | 132.0 | 64.0 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 154.0 | 103.0 | 51.0 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 42.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | |||
Percent Profitable | 78.57 | 78.03 | 79.69 | |||
Avg P&l | -23.41 | 1.11 | -103.8 | 1.15 | 142.4 | 1.03 |
Avg Winning Trade | 643.17 | 1.92 | 681.67 | 1.99 | 565.42 | 1.77 |
Avg Losing Trade | 2467.55 | 1.83 | 2893.59 | 1.83 | 1517.15 | 1.84 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 0.261 | 0.236 | 0.373 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 4233.39 | 4233.39 | 3602.99 | |||
Largest Winning Trade Percent | 12.12 | 12.12 | 5.49 | |||
Largest Losing Trade | 38381.08 | 38381.08 | 5219.17 | |||
Largest Losing Trade Percent | 9.06 | 9.06 | 3.16 | |||
Avg # Bars In Trades | 25.0 | 24.0 | 27.0 | |||
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | |||
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades | 44.0 | 39.0 | 53.0 | |||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.335 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 0.774 | |||||
Profit Factor | 0.956 | 0.837 | 1.462 | |||
Margin Calls | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
All USD | All % | Long USD | Long % | Short USD | Short % | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Open P&l | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Net Profit | -4588.57 | -305.9 | -13701.86 | -913.46 | 9113.29 | 607.55 |
Gross Profit | 99048.33 | 6603.22 | 70212.15 | 4680.81 | 28836.18 | 1922.41 |
Gross Loss | 103636.9 | 6909.13 | 83914.01 | 5594.27 | 19722.89 | 1314.86 |
Commission Paid | 7746.63 | 5467.51 | 2279.11 | |||
Buy & Hold Return | 23406.78 | 1560.45 | ||||
Max Equity Run-up | 36179.36 | 96.04 | ||||
Max Drawdown | 38381.08 | 108.75 | ||||
Max Contracts Held | 42.0 | 42.0 | 40.0 | |||
Total Closed Trades | 196.0 | 132.0 | 64.0 | |||
Total Open Trades | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Number Winning Trades | 154.0 | 103.0 | 51.0 | |||
Number Losing Trades | 42.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | |||
Percent Profitable | 78.57 | 78.03 | 79.69 | |||
Avg P&l | -23.41 | 1.11 | -103.8 | 1.15 | 142.4 | 1.03 |
Avg Winning Trade | 643.17 | 1.92 | 681.67 | 1.99 | 565.42 | 1.77 |
Avg Losing Trade | 2467.55 | 1.83 | 2893.59 | 1.83 | 1517.15 | 1.84 |
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss | 0.261 | 0.236 | 0.373 | |||
Largest Winning Trade | 4233.39 | 4233.39 | 3602.99 | |||
Largest Winning Trade Percent | 12.12 | 12.12 | 5.49 | |||
Largest Losing Trade | 38381.08 | 38381.08 | 5219.17 | |||
Largest Losing Trade Percent | 9.06 | 9.06 | 3.16 | |||
Avg # Bars In Trades | 25.0 | 24.0 | 27.0 | |||
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | |||
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades | 44.0 | 39.0 | 53.0 | |||
Sharpe Ratio | 0.335 | |||||
Sortino Ratio | 0.774 | |||||
Profit Factor | 0.956 | 0.837 | 1.462 | |||
Margin Calls | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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