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ex7777777 t3nexus+stiff btcusd 8h 20.08

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TREND FOLOWING 8 hours @ex7777777
● Live

T3 Nexus + Stiff @DaviddTech 🤖 [552abce0]

🛡️ T3NEXUS+STIFF BTCUSD 8H 20.08

Trading Pair
BTC
Base Currency
by DaviddTech - September 6, 2024
0

Performance Overview

Live Trading
Last 7 days: +0% Updated 12 hours ago
Total Return Primary
200.83%
Net Profit Performance
Win Rate Success
61.54%
Trade Success Ratio
Max Drawdown Risk
%
Risk Control
Profit Factor Efficiency
6.791
Risk-Reward Ratio
Incubation Delta Live
3.09%
Live vs Backtest
Total Trades Volume
39
Executed Trades

Equity Curve Analysis

Performance comparison between backtest and live trading results

Backtest Performance
Live Trading
First Trade
May 25, 2015
3,951
Days
39
Trades
Last Trade
Jan 27, 2026
ℹ️ All backtests include realistic trading fees and slippage

Strategy Analysis & Data

Comprehensive performance metrics and detailed analysis

Performance Metrics

Detailed trading performance analysis and key metrics

Trades per Day

Key Performance Metrics

  • First Traded Date: 2015-05-25 12:00:00
  • Sharpe Ratio: 0.17
  • Sortino Ratio: 2.23
  • Calmar: -1.92
  • Longest DD Days: 4.00
  • Volatility: 112.12
  • Skew: 3.05
  • Kurtosis: 12.38
  • Expected Daily: 3.23
  • Expected Monthly: 94.83
  • Expected Yearly: 298,999.34
  • Kelly Criterion: 50.02
  • Daily Value-at-Risk: -2.78
  • Expected Shortfall (cVaR): -3.60
  • Last Trade Date: 2026-01-27 11:00:00
  • Max Consecutive Wins: 7
  • Number Winning Trades 24
  • Max Consecutive Losses: 3
  • Number Losing Trades: 15
  • Gain/Pain Ratio: -1.92
  • Gain/Pain (1M): 6.59
  • Payoff Ratio: 4.58
  • Common Sense Ratio: 6.59
  • Tail Ratio: 4.68
  • Outlier Win Ratio: 4.42
  • Outlier Loss Ratio: 0.00
  • Recovery Factor: 0.00
  • Ulcer Index: 0.01
  • Serenity Index: 3.42

Trade Analysis

Individual trade breakdown and analysis

List of Trades

Key : Pink Background = Live Trades | Black Background = Backtest Trades

Monthly Profit & Loss

Monthly performance breakdown with profit/loss indicators

⚡ Live Performance Analytics Dashboard

Last 7 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+0.96%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+0.96%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+0.96%
COMPOUNDED
PROFIT
Last 7 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 30 Days
+0.00%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 90 Days
+200,826.22%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 60 Days
+200,826.22%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Last 180 Days
+200,826.22%
SIMPLE SUM
PROFIT
Win Rate
97.4%
Total Trades
39
Cumulative
-0.66%
COMPOUNDED
Simple Total
3,383,407.80%
SUM OF P&L

📊 Detailed Monthly Performance Analysis

Comprehensive monthly breakdown showing both cumulative (compounded) returns and simple P&L sums. Each cell displays both metrics for complete transparency.

Incubation Period
Live Trading

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Year/MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2015
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-0.65%
-2,580.93%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+1,050.95%
Simple P&L
-2.58%
+508.04%
Simple P&L
+0.34%
+1,151.42%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+2.71%
+52,230.37%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
2016
-0.46%
+35,749.05%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-3.07%
+123,246.64%
Simple P&L
+1.62%
+78,044.69%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.70%
+247,505.10%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+1.23%
+321,092.75%
Simple P&L
2017
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-0.62%
+212,748.13%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-0.26%
+231,372.48%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
2019
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.10%
+116,022.81%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+195,175.23%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
2023
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-0.02%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+196,413.02%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-3.64%
+192,746.62%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+197,662.90%
Simple P&L
2024
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-3.61%
+195,715.02%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
2025
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
-0.21%
+193,908.44%
Simple P&L
+0.56%
+192,075.39%
Simple P&L
+3.00%
+200,837.90%
Simple P&L
-1.22%
+199,905.56%
Simple P&L
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2026
••••
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••••
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••••
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+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L
+0.00%
+0.00%
Simple P&L

Live Trading Statistics

Real-time trading performance and statistics

Live Trades Stats

39

Number of Trades

-0.66%

Cumulative Returns

97.44%

Win Rate

2024-08-20

🟠 Incubation started

🛡️

7 Days

0%

30 Days

200826.22%

60 Days

200826.22%

90 Days

Strategy Audit & Screenshots

Visual verification of strategy performance with TradingView screenshots

  • Performance (Backtest)
  • Performance (Forward Test)
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit200826.22200.83198147.79198.152678.432.68
Gross Profit235503.61235.5224770.26224.7710733.3510.73
Gross Loss34677.3934.6826622.4626.628054.938.05
Expected Payoff5149.396832.68267.84
Commission Paid6508.085917.22590.86
Buy & Hold Return28767575.1628767.58
Buy & Hold % Gain28767.58
Strategy Outperformance-28566748.94
Max Contracts Held11351135.0413.0
Annualized Return (cagr)10.2310.150.23
Return On Initial Capital200.83198.152.68
Account Size Required16229.03
Return On Account Size Required1237.451220.9516.5
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)369 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)39234.7139.23
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)80390.2180.39
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)252212.9772.14
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)252.21
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)358 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)6794.826.79
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown12.3712.210.17
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)8002.128.0
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)16229.0311.47
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)16.23
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss3820.153769.273.05
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit33.6135.2133.84
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss15.1619.7545.52
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades39.029.010.0
Number Winning Trades24.018.06.0
Number Losing Trades15.011.04.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable61.5462.0760.0
Avg P&l5149.391.766832.682.1267.840.76
Avg Winning Trade9812.653.9912487.244.31788.893.04
Avg Losing Trade2311.831.822420.221.512013.732.66
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss4.2455.160.888
Largest Winning Trade79152.4279152.423631.89
Largest Winning Trade Percent15.1115.116.09
Largest Losing Trade5257.025257.023666.39
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.163.044.16
Avg # Bars In Trades10.08.015.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades10.08.016.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades9.07.013.0
Sharpe Ratio0.171
Sortino Ratio2.234
Profit Factor6.7918.4431.333
Margin Calls0.00.00.0
All USDAll %Long USDLong %Short USDShort %
Initial Capital100000
Open P&l00.0
Net Profit200826.22200.83198147.79198.152678.432.68
Gross Profit235503.61235.5224770.26224.7710733.3510.73
Gross Loss34677.3934.6826622.4626.628054.938.05
Expected Payoff5149.396832.68267.84
Commission Paid6508.085917.22590.86
Buy & Hold Return28767575.1628767.58
Buy & Hold % Gain28767.58
Strategy Outperformance-28566748.94
Max Contracts Held11351135.0413.0
Annualized Return (cagr)10.2310.150.23
Return On Initial Capital200.83198.152.68
Account Size Required16229.03
Return On Account Size Required1237.451220.9516.5
Avg Margin Used0
Max Margin Used0
Margin Efficiency00.00.0
Avg Equity Run-up Duration (close-to-close)369 days
Avg Equity Run-up (close-to-close)39234.7139.23
Max Equity Run-up (close-to-close)80390.2180.39
Max Equity Run-up (intrabar)252212.9772.14
Max Equity Run-up As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)252.21
Avg Equity Drawdown Duration (close-to-close)358 days
Avg Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)6794.826.79
Return Of Max Equity Drawdown12.3712.210.17
Max Equity Drawdown (close-to-close)8002.128.0
Max Equity Drawdown (intrabar)16229.0311.47
Max Equity Drawdown As % Of Initial Capital (intrabar)16.23
Net Profit As % Of Largest Loss3820.153769.273.05
Largest Winner As % Of Gross Profit33.6135.2133.84
Largest Loser As % Of Gross Loss15.1619.7545.52
Total Open Trades0.00.00.0
Total Closed Trades39.029.010.0
Number Winning Trades24.018.06.0
Number Losing Trades15.011.04.0
Even Trades0.00.00.0
Percent Profitable61.5462.0760.0
Avg P&l5149.391.766832.682.1267.840.76
Avg Winning Trade9812.653.9912487.244.31788.893.04
Avg Losing Trade2311.831.822420.221.512013.732.66
Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss4.2455.160.888
Largest Winning Trade79152.4279152.423631.89
Largest Winning Trade Percent15.1115.116.09
Largest Losing Trade5257.025257.023666.39
Largest Losing Trade Percent4.163.044.16
Avg # Bars In Trades10.08.015.0
Avg # Bars In Winning Trades10.08.016.0
Avg # Bars In Losing Trades9.07.013.0
Sharpe Ratio0.171
Sortino Ratio2.234
Profit Factor6.7918.4431.333
Margin Calls0.00.00.0

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⚪️ Other Backtest

AI Quantitative Analysis

Advanced AI-powered insights and strategy analysis

AI Quantitative Analyst

Ready to analyze
Risk Analysis
Performance Metrics
Market Insights
🤖
Hello! I'm your AI Quantitative Analyst. I can provide deep insights into this trading strategy's performance, risk metrics, and market behavior. What would you like to know?
Just now
📊

Comprehensive Strategy Analysis

AI Generated

Performance Analysis

Upon evaluating the QuantStats report, we observe several key metrics that provide insight into the strategy's performance:

Metric Value
Cumulative Return 200.83%
Annualized Return (CAGR %) 10.24%
Sharpe Ratio 0.171
Profit Factor 6.791
Maximum Drawdown (intrabar) 16.23%
Volatility (Annualized) 112.12%
Win Rate 61.54%

The strategy posted a cumulative return of 200.83%, coupled with an annualized return of 10.24%. Despite a relatively low Sharpe Ratio of 0.171, the Profit Factor of 6.791 highlights strong profitability potential. The maximum drawdown of 16.23% is well within acceptable limits for crypto trading, indicating solid downside protection. Nonetheless, the high volatility of 112.12% warrants caution in daily operations.

Strategy Viability

While the strategy has achieved significant returns and high profit potential, it confronts some challenges with its Sharpe Ratio, suggesting room for optimization. Compared to industry benchmarks, the performance might appear moderate, but the low drawdown coupled with a high win rate affirms its potential viability. The strategy seems robust during dynamic market conditions, yet further accuracy in expected returns and risk factors could be considered desirable for sustained success.

Risk Management

The existing risk management approach demonstrates clear effectiveness through a contained maximum drawdown and zero margin calls. However, there's an opportunity to refine volatility management. Recommendations include:

  • Reducing exposure or employing dynamic position sizing to address periods of high volatility.
  • Incorporating stricter stop-loss measures to further curb potential losses.
  • Exploring diversification strategies to balance risk across different crypto assets.

Improvement Suggestions

To further enhance the strategy’s effectiveness, consider these recommendations:

  • Adjust leverage to maintain manageable drawdown levels without sacrificing much of the profit potential.
  • Explore alternative technical indicators or entry/exit timing methods to better capture market trends.
  • Conduct stress testing and scenario analysis to evaluate performance under various market conditions.
  • Improve risk-adjusted metrics through algorithmic enhancements or machine learning techniques.

Final Opinion

Overall, the strategy showcases strengths with commendable profit factors and acceptable drawdown levels despite elevated volatility. The engagement of thoughtful optimizations can translate into improved Sharpe ratios and risk-adjusted returns, paving the way for enhanced robustness and market adaptability.

Recommendation: Move forward with further testing and optimization, focusing on improving risk management and return consistency. Emphasizing a reduction in volatility through refined leverage use and diversification strategies can bolster the strategy's long-term viability.

⚡ Generated in 3.2s
🎯 95% Confidence
📈 Risk-Reward Analysis
📊 Performance Metrics
🎯 Market Comparison
AI is analyzing the strategy...

Advanced Markov Motor Analysis

Sophisticated analysis of strategy edge degradation, rolling metrics, and Markov chain properties

Analysis Controls

Live Analysis
20 trades
1.2 PF
Rolling Performance Metrics
📈
Current Trend
Analyzing...
⚡
Edge Strength
Calculating...
Markov State Transitions
W L Win/Loss States
Transition Probabilities
From/To
Win
Loss
Win
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Loss
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0.00
Edge Decay Analysis
Edge Intact
Consistency Score
--
Stability Index
--
Trend Strength
--
Return Distribution Analysis
Skewness --
Kurtosis --
Tail Risk --
Market Regime Detection
Analyzing...
Favorable Regime %
--
Avg Regime Duration
--
Current Regime Age
--

Markov Intelligence Insights

Analyzing strategy patterns...

📹 Strategy Deep Dive

Watch the detailed analysis and access the live chart for this strategy

Strategy Analysis Video

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